Another bout of rain for the north

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Tue 03/08/2004 19:27

Here we go again more rain for the NI and cold tonight bound to leave us with a grey wet day tomorrow like Monday

Andy · Unread post by **Andy** » Tue 03/08/2004 19:48

yep most rain looks to be heading towards the north and the west of the south island.

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Tue 03/08/2004 21:45

yep most rain looks to be heading towards the north and the west of the south island.

Looks like you'll have a chilly day tomorrow, should a frost be followed by cloud from the approaching trough - TV1 Weather showed predicted maximums of only 4-5C in Central Otago tomorrow. (4C in Alexandra)

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Wed 04/08/2004 08:36

The Tasman sea has plenty of Frontal cloud + Cb over it this morning for a change. The Front over the past few hours looks like its become more active.
Rain is on the way.

Next week looks like it will stay unsettled with low pressure never very far away. A High in the Tasman looks like it wants to Ridge to the South of NZ bringing cold SE flow onto the SouthIsland.

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Wed 04/08/2004 17:03

Tomorrow looks good for thunderstorms around the Auckland / Northland area. That's a good punt I feel. A night time show looks like a good possibility!

Are you ready people!! $\:D/$

What are your thoughts NZstorm?:-k

Tomorrows midday sounding should proved the yes or no as to what going to happen. Tropopause looks high enough at about 10,000m.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Wed 04/08/2004 17:24

There is plenty of Cb development in the Tasman Sea today behind the Front.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Wed 04/08/2004 18:42

Looks like a band of very unstable air to cross the country from tomorrow afternoon. So yes, some thundery weather likely in the west of the country, particularly central NZ northward.

The sounding is less useful in this instance, satellite imagery will tell the story.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Wed 04/08/2004 19:00

just back to its usual shitty pattern again

Manukau heads obs · Wed 04/08/2004 19:07

the drizzle this afternoon in the auckland area was actualy the drizzle we got 2 days ago from that easterly surge!
i.e it got pushed back down onto us as the front from the west approaches....
thats why it was such cold rain
but the temperature is slowly increasing, now its max for the day (7pm)

i think maybe the front has peaked, and as it moves further away from the low, it will start to weaken somewhat.
its forecast to slow down over the BOP...hopefully not too much and its weakened....they dont need any more rain
looked impressive today, the front, on the sat pic (which has not been working too good on the met service site

Andy · Unread post by **Andy** » Wed 04/08/2004 19:20

Hopefully not to much more rain for the BOP

, impressive sat pic of the low and frontal band

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Wed 04/08/2004 21:25

Front moving over NZ

Manukau heads obs · Wed 04/08/2004 21:55

warm frontal rain gone through now, with 8mm
temperature warming up more now, currently 12.5

cold front rain still to head our way...does not look all that organised on the rain radar yet
no lightning counts counted yet by my lightning counter

CbFan · Unread post by **CbFan** » Wed 04/08/2004 23:09

Currently a balmy 13.6deg and 9mm/Hr rain rate in one of several heavy showers floating around up here this evening. Had 24mm so far today. No SFX on the am though.

Manukau heads obs · Thu 05/08/2004 06:05

am
front looks good on sat pic
but its all show.,....just high slouds
the rain radar shows only a few heavy showers under it....
just as i thought...it would weaken and that there was nothing to worry about

10mm only so far

Manukau heads obs · Thu 05/08/2004 07:11

now 7am
swing more to the NW, we have had a wind shift, and I can see blue skies out to the west...
so the front has gone through, and only 10mm recorded here
so I was correct when I said nearly 2 weeks ago all the cold air coming up from aorund the low to the east of us would mean not much moisture.....

well, 10mm in the auckland area is nothing to crow about,and only 10mm so far in Te Puke, see
http://homepages.paradise.net.nz/whiteoak/
is nothing to worry about either! (despite there being heavy rain warnings by the met service (but they still might get a bit more rain yet)

the top of the coromandel got more thought, but 25mm is not much for them either
http://homepages.paradise.net.nz/tedm/C ... eather.htm

BUT, the front has slowed down its eastward movement to the NNW of north cape.....something to watch
Lots of Big CB's on the tasman to come in over the next few days, but the parent low needs to move a bit closer yet...

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Thu 05/08/2004 07:30

(which I never asked to be on, and which I got one on the day my dad died, which was not very nice)
My dad died when I was out of the country so that was rather minor

Thats all I will say about this topic

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Thu 05/08/2004 08:55

The heavy rain thinking around this Front was based on the idea of a slow moving Front which has to yet clear Eastern parts.

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Thu 05/08/2004 09:06

spwill wrote:The heavy rain thinking around this Front was based on the idea of a slow moving Front which has to yet clear Eastern parts.

I dont think everybody's heavy rain thinking was based on that, otherwise there wouldnt have been predictions of heavy rain for Mt Taranaki for example.

[Edited to satisfy Ken Ring]

Manukau heads obs · Thu 05/08/2004 09:29

Latest met service warning just issued (so, yes, it looks like the slow down to the north of us is going to move back onto us (at the moment we are getting rain from a shower line as part of what was left over from the front)

A front which moved over central New Zealand early this morning is
now moving over eastern Bay of Plenty. Heavy rain has started to ease
there but the front is expected to spread back over the area this
afternoon as a developing low moves from the north Tasman Sea towards
central New Zealand.
80mm of rain is expected in the eastern ranges of Bay of Plenty until
about midnight tonight. Although there should be some respite this
morning people should be prepared for rivers and streams to rise
again. There is also the possibility of slips on roads.

Manukau heads obs · Thu 05/08/2004 11:39

very heavy rain band now just off the kaipara harbour, northern end,going in a line west/east (as per the latest rain radar on sky)
will be some thunder in that possibly

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Thu 05/08/2004 11:40

Weather now overcast with no wind 14c Some periods of rain

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Thu 05/08/2004 11:59

Still overcast but rain has stoped . 30mm so far around here.

Manukau heads obs · Thu 05/08/2004 12:08

where do you live?
Grey Lyn got 20mm
http://www.portunus.net.nz/weather/Prime.htm
but Massey got more, about 30mm
see:
http://www.rob-hall.esurf.co.nz/our_weather.htm
so you must live out at massey

C-Nimbus · Unread post by **C-Nimbus** » Thu 05/08/2004 12:23

oooh look at this

Manukau heads obs · Thu 05/08/2004 12:25

yup, thats what i was regering to in a few posts back...

its heading for me, LOL
looks heavy
dont know if it will stay that intense by the time it gets here, time will tell