NZ Weather Forum

Bradley wrote: ↑Fri 29/06/2018 10:14 Looking at the longterm modelling I'm beginning to have my doubts about any big low level snow events this winter for Christchurch/Canterbury, going on 5 years now since Christchurch had snow settling in the city, after the 3 events in July and August 2011 and June 2012 everyone became a little spoilt I think and expected an event like that every 2-3 years

03Stormchaser wrote: ↑Fri 29/06/2018 22:13

Bradley wrote: ↑Fri 29/06/2018 10:14 Looking at the longterm modelling I'm beginning to have my doubts about any big low level snow events this winter for Christchurch/Canterbury, going on 5 years now since Christchurch had snow settling in the city, after the 3 events in July and August 2011 and June 2012 everyone became a little spoilt I think and expected an event like that every 2-3 years

The less snow we get the better, its not much more than an inconvenience!

Rogue wrote: ↑Fri 29/06/2018 22:16

03Stormchaser wrote: ↑Fri 29/06/2018 22:13

The less snow we get the better, its not much more than an inconvenience!

Bloody Grinch haha

Cyclone Tracy wrote: ↑Sat 30/06/2018 18:01 Antarctica surface temperatures dropping like a stone now. Stratospheric polar vortex looking very strong.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 08,-82.628

Analysing closely each day on any significant zonal winds changes developing from 10 to 50 hPa. No signs at the moment but when it shifts, this will be a powerful polar pulse equatorward.

Richard wrote: ↑Mon 02/07/2018 13:40 Nice warm weekend coming up by the look of it.

Bradley wrote: ↑Fri 29/06/2018 10:14 Looking at the longterm modelling I'm beginning to have my doubts about any big low level snow events this winter for Christchurch/Canterbury, going on 5 years now since Christchurch had snow settling in the city, after the 3 events in July and August 2011 and June 2012 everyone became a little spoilt I think and expected an event like that every 2-3 years

Razor wrote: ↑Tue 03/07/2018 11:09 Heading over to Moana on the West Coast this weekend. looks like a couple of vigourous frontal systems pushing in over there, might see some action weather!

High pressure prevails this week, before northwesterly gales kick in this weekend. Stormy southwesterlies and low pressures dominate next week (week two).Week three (16-22 July) should see some quieter weather, with high pressure moving briefly across the country. Cooler south to southeasterly winds are signalled to return across the North Island at the end of the month, but with lower confidence.
Temperature-wise, expect the weeks to continue to yo-yo. This week is forecast to run rather mild across the South Island and eastern North Island. In contrast,week two stands out as much colder than usual nationally, while week four is signalled as unusually cold over the North Island. Overall, most of the North Island is predicted to see a colder than usual July, except for Wairarapa,Gisborne, Hawke's Bay (near average temperatures). Above average July temperatures are forecast for the West Coast South Island, as well as for Central Otago and Southland. Elsewhere in the South Island, expect a typical July temperature regime.
Due to the wide mixture of weather maps expected this month, July rainfall totals average out as near normal, although the week-to-week looks anything but.The exceptions are Wairarapa, Hawkes Bay and Gisborne (below normal July totals),and the West Coast South Island (above normal totals).

Bottom Line:
A colder than usual July for most of the North Island, except for the east coast. A mild July for the West Coast South Island, Central Otago and Southland. Elsewhere, near average temperatures likely. Wetter than normal for the West Coast, drier than normal along the eastern North Island. Near normal July rainfall totals elsewhere.

Chris W wrote: ↑Mon 02/07/2018 18:09

Richard wrote: ↑Mon 02/07/2018 13:40 Nice warm weekend coming up by the look of it.

In that case, from just after it. Potentially given the GFS and Metvuw, Monday through Thursday next week there is a strong and very cold southerly pulse.