NZ Weather Forum

Surely we cant go through all of winter without some major system effecting us in Canterbury.

Bradley wrote: ↑Tue 24/07/2018 10:30 With the MJO also predicted to take a significant drop into negative territory over the next few weeks do you think August is ripe for a setup for something major to happen CT?

Think you mean that the SAM (aka AAO) is expected to drop into negative mode?
The MJO is currently in Phase 6 (Western Pacific).

Nev wrote: ↑Tue 24/07/2018 11:30

Bradley wrote: ↑Tue 24/07/2018 10:30 With the MJO also predicted to take a significant drop into negative territory over the next few weeks do you think August is ripe for a setup for something major to happen CT?

Think you mean that the SAM (aka AAO) is expected to drop into negative mode?
The MJO is currently in Phase 6 (Western Pacific).

Yes thanks Nev that's right, I was meaning the AAO

Richard wrote: ↑Tue 24/07/2018 10:51 Surely we cant go through all of winter without some major system effecting us in Canterbury.

Same here. Running out of firewood.

Social media talked up this system just been in Canterbury but hasn't really delivered much, sure the Lewis pass was closed but that's not uncommon and it was mainly the western side.
Been sunny on and off today in chch with only a little drizzle and in Rangiora only had 2mm for the last two days.

Sent from my Redmi Note 4 using Tapatalk

Nice Cu clouds again today especially around the 4 Peaks area driving back from Temuka, later this afternoon.
Quite photographical, but then, I didn't have my camera with me.

melja wrote: ↑Tue 24/07/2018 15:21 Social media talked up this system just been in Canterbury but hasn't really delivered much, sure the Lewis pass was closed but that's not uncommon and it was mainly the western side.
Been sunny on and off today in chch with only a little drizzle and in Rangiora only had 2mm for the last two days.

Sent from my Redmi Note 4 using Tapatalk

I wonder why it was talked up, it never really looked like much except for a wind event on Saturday.

Bradley wrote: ↑Tue 24/07/2018 10:30

Cyclone Tracy wrote: ↑Mon 23/07/2018 19:52 EC, UKMet and GFS are becoming quite volatile, trying to compute the flow on effects from the upcoming cold breach in the tropics this weekend. Fascinating to now watch how individual models comprehend the tropical disturbance. So far, from when the butterfly flapped its wings in the stratosphere a week ago, it has had all the ingredients of an upcoming major bomb cyclone in the region. We'll probably know if it will all come together by this time next week IMO.

With the MJO also predicted to take a significant drop into negative territory over the next few weeks do you think August is ripe for a setup for something major to happen CT?

Yes Bradley, AAO going negative is part of the jigsaw puzzle which was triggered by the Stratosphere last week. Models will be volatile, so lots of downgrades and upgrades in the next 2 weeks. Whether all the synoptics line up for a major bomb cold core cyclone is still unknown for the moment but the Rossby wave is ballooning upper cold pools into the northern Tasman and sub tropics from this weekend.

Certainly significant evidence of model volatility showing on GFS, its flip-flopping faster than a beached fish

Christchurch on track to record it's warmest ever July in terms of maximums, should beat 2013 with an average maximum of 13.5C or at the very least go very close to doing so, also if August is warmer then usual then Christchurch will be in with a real shot of recordings its warmest ever winter as a whole as well, also beating 2013...

Read a comment from a Facebook forecaster that it's been colder than usual in chch this winter, think they have there heat pump on cold.

Sent from my Redmi Note 4 using Tapatalk

melja wrote: ↑Wed 25/07/2018 11:09 Read a comment from a Facebook forecaster that it's been colder than usual in chch this winter, think they have there heat pump on cold.

Sent from my Redmi Note 4 using Tapatalk

Maybe they are still riding on June max temps being a little cooler then usual with all the cloud? In any case it's quite an uneducated statement, you just have to look at the stats to see it's quite clearly been one of the warmest June-July periods on record for Christchurch...

Bradley wrote: ↑Wed 25/07/2018 09:54 Christchurch on track to record it's warmest ever July in terms of maximums, should beat 2013 with an average maximum of 13.5C or at the very least go very close to doing so, also if August is warmer then usual then Christchurch will be in with a real shot of recordings its warmest ever winter as a whole as well, also beating 2013...

Yes its been an unusually warm July this year, with westerly winds and warmer temps over the weekend forecast I expect it to be one for the record books. Be interested to see what August brings and any chance of a late cold snap?

In June it was the minimums which were well above normal, in July its been the daytime maximums. Its interesting how people's perception alters with the weather - I feel that people dont notice warm days in winter much, but get a cold day and everyone comments on it! (Talking Joe Public here, not the weather geeks). The reverse is the case in summer. This winter a lot of people have said to me it feels like a cold winter, even though the stats say otherwise. Perhaps thats just the impact of that 14 day period at the start of June (plus all the southwest weather we got in May).

Up here the very drab first half of June had most people thinking it was cold, that perception helped by a high number of rain days. Since then there has been a more normal amount of sun and though it is a little colder (Tmean) I haven't heard anyone say it is cold apart from my very old mother-in-law, who says that in winter regardless.

The general option around here is that is been a warmer than normal winter so far, given its the third year in a row with no snow on the ground,(long term locals say its always snowed every year), this is clearly part of the global climate change, i would like to know when are the deniers finally going to except that

Richard wrote: ↑Wed 25/07/2018 13:08 The general option around here is that is been a warmer than normal winter so far, given its the third year in a row with no snow on the ground,(long term locals say its always snowed every year), this is clearly part of the global climate change, i would like to know when are the deniers finally going to except that

Okay, we give up, the science is settled, so......... what are we going to do about it?

Enjoy the warmth

Sent from my Redmi Note 4 using Tapatalk

Given that NZ is still surrounded by significantly warmer than normal SSTs, its not surprising that we have had a normal (NI) to warmer than normal (SI) winter so far.
[And before someone jumps on my prediction from earlier in the year of a "near normal or perhaps slightly colder" winter, yes that is a bust, but was based on an expectation that the SSTs would cool off faster than they have.]

The SSTs are cooling steadily...
...but there is a puzzling fork in the road ahead - IF we move towards weak to moderate El Nino or (more likely in my opinion) Modoki El Nino, then by DJF we should have a cold Tasman Sea, which models based on analogs are predicting.
Yet, most dynamic models are expecting the current warmth in the Tasman Sea to remain for DJF, even as those same models are taking us down a road to Nino. Which is kinda internally inconsistent.

melja wrote: ↑Wed 25/07/2018 15:50 Enjoy the warmth

Sent from my Redmi Note 4 using Tapatalk

haha, I wonder if that's how the dinosaurs died out all those millions of years ago when the earth was 4C warmer then it is today, must have been all that nasty warmth around

melja wrote: ↑Wed 25/07/2018 15:50 Enjoy the warmth

Must admit, these warmer winter are quite nice

We have had the heat pump on a lot more this Winter but mainly in June with the cold nights.

The Otago Ski fields seem to be having a great season so far, snow making will have helped, fields have looked great from late May.

There is a strong negative signal showing up in the AAO outlook.

Yeah ditched the log burner this winter and put 3 heat pumps in and what a saving compared to buying wood.

Sent from my Redmi Note 4 using Tapatalk

17C today in Auckland and up to 19C in Whangarei/kerikeri.
Overall I think July has felt milder than June.

melja wrote: ↑Thu 26/07/2018 09:35 Yeah ditched the log burner this winter and put 3 heat pumps in and what a saving compared to buying wood.

Sent from my Redmi Note 4 using Tapatalk

Been the other way around here. Hardly had the heat pump on.
Haven't used electicity for the hot water since March.