General August Weather
Posted: Tue 31/07/2018 16:54
A westerrlie start for the month?
I wonder what the rest of the month will be like?
I wonder what the rest of the month will be like?
Will be really interesting to see how it develops. Metservice saying tomorrow will be a mostly fine day in Auckland but their 3 day model shows some rain at timesCyclone Tracy wrote: ↑Sat 04/08/2018 20:08 Looking at the current radar, the near stationery front around the NI has definitely moved further north west than models had anticipated. Showers are now just east of Great Barrier Island. Parts of the Upper NI including Auckland might get wet tomorrow depending on how this new surface low behaves.
Very nice shot - terminal lake looks bigger than ever.NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: ↑Sat 04/08/2018 20:50 Just come back from Mt. Cook where the cloud cleared away this morning to become a nice sunny day up there. Foggy or misty coming back to Geraldine.
One interesting tidbit, is that most models (and analogs) are picking a colder than usual Tasman Sea for summer time. No matter whether going for strong El Nino or only weak. Lets ask, how can that happen, given that much of the Tasman is still a little warmer than usual? Its a short period of time to make a significant turnaround. Two answers, either or both may be correct. One, frequent southwest airflow driving cooler waters into the Tasman from the Southern Ocean, or two, strong winds creating upwelling.Cyclone Tracy wrote: ↑Tue 07/08/2018 13:31 Just passed 18c for the 2nd day in a row on my PWS. First sequence since 21st / 22nd May
Negative SAM thrashing SE OZ with winds over the past couple of weeks with bigger winds and low snowfall to come this weekend and next week.
Continued low term signals of a very unstable equinox period around NZ. Been watching this daily for the last week, waiting for the signals to calm down but they are still strong across many platforms and theories. Vigorous and unstable equinoctial gales could be common this spring. Here are some examples at the moment derived from NOAA data.
Yes, interesting point. At the moment, maybe it’s the vigorous west to SW flow around the equinox that could change the SST trend. It’s certainly looking like an aggressive period from the southern ocean based on some longer term models.TonyT wrote: ↑Tue 07/08/2018 15:37One interesting tidbit, is that most models (and analogs) are picking a colder than usual Tasman Sea for summer time. No matter whether going for strong El Nino or only weak. Lets ask, how can that happen, given that much of the Tasman is still a little warmer than usual? Its a short period of time to make a significant turnaround. Two answers, either or both may be correct. One, frequent southwest airflow driving cooler waters into the Tasman from the Southern Ocean, or two, strong winds creating upwelling.Cyclone Tracy wrote: ↑Tue 07/08/2018 13:31 Just passed 18c for the 2nd day in a row on my PWS. First sequence since 21st / 22nd May
Negative SAM thrashing SE OZ with winds over the past couple of weeks with bigger winds and low snowfall to come this weekend and next week.
Continued low term signals of a very unstable equinox period around NZ. Been watching this daily for the last week, waiting for the signals to calm down but they are still strong across many platforms and theories. Vigorous and unstable equinoctial gales could be common this spring. Here are some examples at the moment derived from NOAA data.
Am I missing something or does NOAA on the attached link forecast warmer then average SST anamolies tight into next year, not cooler SST?TonyT wrote: ↑Tue 07/08/2018 15:37One interesting tidbit, is that most models (and analogs) are picking a colder than usual Tasman Sea for summer time. No matter whether going for strong El Nino or only weak. Lets ask, how can that happen, given that much of the Tasman is still a little warmer than usual? Its a short period of time to make a significant turnaround. Two answers, either or both may be correct. One, frequent southwest airflow driving cooler waters into the Tasman from the Southern Ocean, or two, strong winds creating upwelling.Cyclone Tracy wrote: ↑Tue 07/08/2018 13:31 Just passed 18c for the 2nd day in a row on my PWS. First sequence since 21st / 22nd May
Negative SAM thrashing SE OZ with winds over the past couple of weeks with bigger winds and low snowfall to come this weekend and next week.
Continued low term signals of a very unstable equinox period around NZ. Been watching this daily for the last week, waiting for the signals to calm down but they are still strong across many platforms and theories. Vigorous and unstable equinoctial gales could be common this spring. Here are some examples at the moment derived from NOAA data.
It does, but by the look of that DJF map which has warm just about everywhere, I wouldn't trust it. And usually dont.Bradley wrote: ↑Tue 07/08/2018 18:58
Am I missing something or does NOAA on the attached link forecast warmer then average SST anamolies tight into next year, not cooler SST?
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... e3Sea.html