NZ Weather Forum

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: ↑Fri 24/08/2018 17:28 A bit of rain overnight dropped a bit of snow over Mt' Peel and a sprinkling along the 4 peaks.
First for a while.

Some snow to 900 metres overnight in the high country cleared to a mild day at Lake Emma

What a nice photo Dean.

Richard wrote: ↑Sat 25/08/2018 09:21 What a nice photo John.

Sorry, Richard, the above lovely photo was taken by Dean, not me

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: ↑Sat 25/08/2018 13:25

Richard wrote: ↑Sat 25/08/2018 09:21 What a nice photo John.

Sorry, Richard, the above lovely photo was taken by Dean, not me

Yer i see that, better put up right name , thought ya must have bought yourself a nice camera for your requirement

Richard wrote: ↑Sat 25/08/2018 13:27 , thought ya must have bought yourself a nice camera for your requirement

I should get a new camera that dosen't have spots on it when you zoom in
ie.

The below photo was taken at Tekapo 2 Weekends ago.

Looks like a cracking day for much of the country

Yes, yet another stunning wall to wall day of blue sky down here.
When will it end?

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: ↑Sun 26/08/2018 12:54 Yes, yet another stunning wall to wall day of blue sky down here.
When will it end?

Next weekend?

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: ↑Sun 26/08/2018 12:54 Yes, yet another stunning wall to wall day of blue sky down here.
When will it end?

Wish I could say the same for here... the weather was forecast to be fairly nice today but it turns out to be mostly grey skies, even some drizzly bits around this morning. Not feeling like Spring at all recently.

Was in Auckland for the rugby and have to say the weather was average that's for sure.

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David wrote:

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: ↑Sun 26/08/2018 12:54 Yes, yet another stunning wall to wall day of blue sky down here.
When will it end?

Wish I could say the same for here... the weather was forecast to be fairly nice today but it turns out to be mostly grey skies, even some drizzly bits around this morning. Not feeling like Spring at all recently.

That was us yesterday. MetService forecast all day said fine with SW dieing away. Well what we had was a strong SW with shower after shower all day. That forecast was a shocker.


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Yeah, that SW flow didn't quite tilt S enough as early as thought. At least got the promised sun today here. Hit 18.0C on my outdoor sensor. Have tried hard to prevent it getting heated by solar radiation or in sheltered warmth but that's almost impossible to avoid in suburbia.
Suspect wont quite see frost again in town as too much heat absorbed by urban landscape. In June that was less of a factor.

Ironic in a winter that is running above average temp in large parts and many of us commenting on lack of frosts (or at least hard frosts), the Whakapapa upper snow base has gone over 3m.

Can see no rocks at all from the Westridge cam since the last storm, that means a very solid base down quite low, has not happened for a few years.

David wrote: ↑Sun 26/08/2018 16:17 Wish I could say the same for here... the weather was forecast to be fairly nice today but it turns out to be mostly grey skies, even some drizzly bits around this morning. Not feeling like Spring at all recently.

With El Nino it's possible we could end up with a cruddy cool overcast spring in Auckland due to cool stable SW in Tasman. That trend could establish by October. Hopefully not.

Get ready for some big model downgrades and upgrades over the next 7 days… models struggle with cut off lows and this Tasman cyclonic gyre currently forming off NSW should cut off from the westerly flow within 24 hours. Fairly decent synoptic scale system with an occluded front forming a vigorous moist northerly flow into the NI. Atmospheric river will flow hard from the sub tropics over parts of the NI as the week goes on.

Will be looking at next week too.
Looking a various model sources - in particular if the ECMWF correct there is a significant upper trough sweeping through, forecast early next week.
Severe Squalls/ Storms, Snow the lot.....

Will be def be keeping an eye on the prognostics on that upcoming time frame....

But overall looking like a very disturbed weather pattern in the next fortnight.....

Yup metvuw showing mon/tue next week pretty rough. Know it’s a long way out but it’s inline with what you’re saying!

Warming has peaked @ 10 hPa and zonal wind changes are now appearing in the lower stratospheric polar vortex with it losing its shape @ 70 hPa

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 88,-85.865

On the surface , Antarctica is now in the deep freeze stage and will start to warm as the tropospheric polar vortex weakens and balloons towards the mid latitudes.

Long wave trough now has a big target on NZ early next week.

It seems to be all coming together for a wild lead up to the equinox

RE: see post in "off topic"

Major burn in the back of Hawarden even showed up on radar

Nice one, there, Richard.
I did notice that on the radar.
Dull day here in Geraldine. Cloudy all day and rather cool.
A bit of change to the lovely fine weather we have been getting lately.

Incredible photo Richard, nice.

Saturday through Tuesday is looking potentially quite wild, minor variations but GFS and EC both going windy and cold. I really should add however, before that it looks very wet for the North Island.

Thunder and lightning just now in Howick, some heavy rain as well

flashes and claps here as well, 23mm so far

18.6mm in the last hour in Howick but has eased off at the moment.