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General November Weather
Posted: Thu 01/11/2018 08:52
by David
Bit of an unsettled start to the month. A little heavy rain band has just passed through this morning, and looking set to get quite windy today.
Re: General November Weather
Posted: Thu 01/11/2018 08:55
by Razor
I'm in Invercargill after 4 days on Stewart Island. What a stunning place that is complete with its 10 seasons every day
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Re: General November Weather
Posted: Thu 01/11/2018 10:25
by David
Brief but impressive deluge just passed through Howick - up to 158mm/hr on the weather station and a bit squally too
Re: General November Weather
Posted: Thu 01/11/2018 11:53
by Cyclone Tracy
Clocked a rate of 131 mm/hr here very briefly. Interesting day for parts of the NI today.....getting some surface heating between the showers at the moment here. Coldest air aloft arrives from mid afternoon, could be 45 to 48c differences from surface to 500 hPa. Latest Access R has winds 50 knots at 850 hPa, so there is going to be some decent gusts mixing downward.
Re: General November Weather
Posted: Thu 01/11/2018 16:21
by spwill
Bay of Plenty and eastern Waikato getting some Tstorm cells last hr or two.
Re: General November Weather
Posted: Thu 01/11/2018 17:15
by Cyclone Tracy
Wind wise, a robust south westerly squeeze zone is developing into Auckland. Multiple PWS's on this side of the harbour have now clocked 100 km/h + gusts.
Re: General November Weather
Posted: Thu 01/11/2018 17:15
by spwill
A decent looking Tstorm in North Waikato now, I should have chased today.
Re: General November Weather
Posted: Thu 01/11/2018 17:49
by NZstorm
Those cells in northeast Waikato showing reflectivity of 60dBZ. That must be very heavy hail.
Windy in Auckland late this afternoon with Airport averaging up to 30knots
Re: General November Weather
Posted: Fri 02/11/2018 04:43
by melja
Let's see how this plays out.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/108281 ... g-november
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Re: General November Weather
Posted: Fri 02/11/2018 07:50
by RWood
Typical headline - bears little relationship to the actual report. Cue idiotic responses from some "Stuff" readers. Many apparently can't tell the difference between the numbers 2 and 3 - i.e. they think the forecasts are using just "above" and "below" categories instead of 3 categories - and do some miscomputations as a result (along the lines of "40-45% chance of being warmer, so 55-60% chance of being colder, they are clueless"). The outlooks do clearly cite 3 categories, even in Stuff's version ...
Re: General November Weather
Posted: Fri 02/11/2018 08:11
by wembley
I'll believe that when I actually see it.
Re: General November Weather
Posted: Fri 02/11/2018 08:15
by TonyT
RWood wrote: ↑Fri 02/11/2018 07:50
Typical headline - bears little relationship to the actual report. Cue idiotic responses from some "Stuff" readers. Many apparently can't tell the difference between the numbers 2 and 3 - i.e. they think the forecasts are using just "above" and "below" categories instead of 3 categories - and do some miscomputations as a result (along the lines of "40-45% chance of being warmer, so 55-60% chance of being colder, they are clueless"). The outlooks do clearly cite 3 categories, even in Stuff's version ...
If its a 40-45% chance of being warmer, then the most likely outcome is a cooler or near normal summer, being what the 55-60% chance represents. So the headline conclusion of "a hot three months" is not supported by the outlook as released.
I would note that every analogue season to this one I look at had a colder than normal December.
Re: General November Weather
Posted: Fri 02/11/2018 08:31
by RWood
Wouldn't be surprised if the "warmer" probability gets downgraded when their December-February outlook appears.
Re: General November Weather
Posted: Fri 02/11/2018 08:44
by Nev
Nothing too unusual about some eastern areas reaching 30C or more in November, doesn't mean the month as a whole will be 'scorching' though…
Re: General November Weather
Posted: Fri 02/11/2018 09:58
by Chris W
Well, we are certainly starting off with strong wind this weekend, and warmth for eastern areas in the same period. It looks like that may also occur early next week, at least the warmth, from the BOM charts. I wouldn't know about 'scorching, I rarely use that term unless it's happening at the time!
Re: General November Weather
Posted: Fri 02/11/2018 10:07
by TonyT
Chris W wrote: ↑Fri 02/11/2018 09:58
Well, we are certainly starting off with strong wind this weekend, and warmth for eastern areas in the same period. It looks like that may also occur early next week, at least the warmth, from the BOM charts. I wouldn't know about 'scorching, I rarely use that term unless it's happening at the time!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kZMUAd7OJc8
Re: General November Weather
Posted: Fri 02/11/2018 13:42
by RWood
TonyT wrote: ↑Fri 02/11/2018 08:15
RWood wrote: ↑Fri 02/11/2018 07:50
Typical headline - bears little relationship to the actual report. Cue idiotic responses from some "Stuff" readers. Many apparently can't tell the difference between the numbers 2 and 3 - i.e. they think the forecasts are using just "above" and "below" categories instead of 3 categories - and do some miscomputations as a result (along the lines of "40-45% chance of being warmer, so 55-60% chance of being colder, they are clueless"). The outlooks do clearly cite 3 categories, even in Stuff's version ...
If its a 40-45% chance of being warmer, then the most likely outcome is a cooler or near normal summer, being what the 55-60% chance represents. So the headline conclusion of "a hot three months" is not supported by the outlook as released.
I would note that every analogue season to this one I look at had a colder than normal December.
How many analogue seasons did you find?
Re: General November Weather
Posted: Fri 02/11/2018 18:15
by NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Nev wrote: ↑Fri 02/11/2018 08:44
Nothing too unusual about some eastern areas reaching 30C or more in November, doesn't mean the month as a whole will be 'scorching' though…
I remember in my young days, Show WE in Christchurch was always "Hot with a NW blowing".
That hasn't happened for years.
Maybe we had cold winters in the 1960/70s's and in November, then when it warmed up to temperatures that were much warmer than previous, it felt as though, it was hot. I remember dust flying around as well, whilst watching a few events.
.
Re: General November Weather
Posted: Fri 02/11/2018 20:13
by TonyT
RWood wrote: ↑Fri 02/11/2018 13:42
How many analogue seasons did you find?
The strongest is 2009, but 2002 and 2014 are significant. All El Nino years.
Re: General November Weather
Posted: Fri 02/11/2018 22:20
by NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Wet looking to the radar this evening but nothing here?
Re: General November Weather
Posted: Sat 03/11/2018 01:01
by Chris Raine
Virga
Re: General November Weather
Posted: Sat 03/11/2018 06:50
by Orion
NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: ↑Fri 02/11/2018 18:15
Nev wrote: ↑Fri 02/11/2018 08:44
Nothing too unusual about some eastern areas reaching 30C or more in November, doesn't mean the month as a whole will be 'scorching' though…
I remember in my young days, Show WE in Christchurch was always "Hot with a NW blowing".
That hasn't happened for years.
Maybe we had cold winters in the 1960/70s's and in November, then when it warmed up to temperatures that were much warmer than previous, it felt as though, it was hot. I remember dust flying around as well, whilst watching a few events.
.
It snowed in Ashburton just before Show Day 1976...
I think the Show is a week later than it was? to accommodate Melbourne Cup betting. Different venue now too.
Re: General November Weather
Posted: Sat 03/11/2018 06:59
by melja
Quite cold this NW system so far, was only 4C at the top of Arthur's pass last evening and raining.
This morning in Kumara it's heavy rain and only 7C.
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Re: General November Weather
Posted: Sat 03/11/2018 09:40
by mattyj46
Was already feeling a balmy 17c just after 8am here in Invercargill, rain imminent though.
Re: General November Weather
Posted: Sat 03/11/2018 10:27
by melja
Temp jumped up to 14C here in Kumara with the arrival of a true NW. Gusts of 70kph recorded up on wind turbine. 30mm of rain since about 4am when it started.
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