Tropical Cyclone Tino - Fiji-Tonga

[Cyclone Tracy]

The projected tropical depression and possible cyclone around Fiji in 5 days is becoming likely. The main UKMet model is quite interesting..... its projecting the cyclone to travel at a slower speed than that of the main EC & GFS projections. This could affect the timing of the mid latitude trough linkage and the cyclone exiting east of NZ if it verifies.

[Chris W]

Convergence at all levels in that area west of Fiji with the trades and mid-latitude winds feeding in, though the jet at 250hPa is the exception to that as I guess it might usually be. So low shear up to at least 500hPa = good conditions for TC development? Asking for a friend

[Awhituobs]

models have it passing way to the east but as a deep low, so will push good long period swell onto eastern NZ

[Cyclone Tracy]

So low shear up to at least 500hPa = good conditions for TC development? Asking for a friend

A TC structure reaches the top of the troposphere, so lower vertical wind shear is required from 850 to 200 hPa otherwise the structure vertically tilts hampering the flow of energy. Wind shear and SST's below 26c are the mortal enemies of tropical cyclones

The tropical depression NW of Vanuatu now named. Fiji Met (TD04F) and JTWC (invest 93P). Still looking very disorganised but is near an area of low vertical wind shear shortly.

[Chris W]

So low shear up to at least 500hPa = good conditions for TC development? Asking for a friend

A TC structure reaches the top of the troposphere, so lower vertical wind shear is required from 850 to 200 hPa otherwise the structure vertically tilts hampering the flow of energy. Wind shear and SST's below 26c are the mortal enemies of tropical cyclones

The tropical depression NW of Vanuatu now named. Fiji Met (TD04F) and JTWC (invest 93P). Still looking very disorganised but is near an area of low vertical wind shear shortly.

I was sort of meaning how is this specific one looking? I can only see the jet as an obstacle to development presently.

[Cyclone Tracy]

A TC structure reaches the top of the troposphere, so lower vertical wind shear is required from 850 to 200 hPa otherwise the structure vertically tilts hampering the flow of energy. Wind shear and SST's below 26c are the mortal enemies of tropical cyclones

The tropical depression NW of Vanuatu now named. Fiji Met (TD04F) and JTWC (invest 93P). Still looking very disorganised but is near an area of low vertical wind shear shortly.

I was sort of meaning how is this specific one looking? I can only see the jet as an obstacle to development presently.

The environment is getting better by the hour. Some deep convection starting to fire north and south of the circulation this afternoon but overall still quite disorganised for the moment.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Finally the tropical depression is moving into an area of more favourable vertical wind shear north east Fiji and it's becoming more organised with deep convection starting to wrap around the circulation centre . Models have certainly struggled with the timing of the development. Currently around 30 knot winds, 991 hPa.

[Awhituobs]

its one of the bigger areas of convection associated with a developing tropical low I have seen for a while

[Nev]

Thought TC Tino, named by Fiji Met this morning, could do with its own thread.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Tino currently still looking asymmetrical but slowly showing better form. Advanced Dvorak technique estimating now around 45 knots and 977 hPa. Southern outer bands starting to wrap around over Fiji on the 12.30pm radar.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Undu point lighthouse NE of Labasa now down to 984.6 hPa

Edit: On the today's 00Z run, EC, Icon, GFS, UK & Access R all have a direct hit on Tonga (Nuku'alofa) tomorrow evening. UK's intensity is around the high end cat 2 to low end cat 3.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Undu point lighthouse now down to 981 hPa. A ragged closed eye just to the lighthouse's east on radar.

[Nev]

Tino upgraded to Cat 2 by Fiji Met very early this morning, after passing within 15 km of Vanua Levu's NE Udu Point last night. JTWC now expecting Tino to hit Tonga's main island of Tongatapu as a Cat 3 tonight…

[Cyclone Tracy]

Fiji Met now upgraded to severe tropical cyclone Category 3.

[Awhituobs]

i am not surprised

[Nev]

Tino currently making its way through Tonga's central Ha'apai group of islands.
971 hPa with max winds of 65 kt according to Fiji Met…