Hurricane Laura

[Cyclone Tracy]

2 current tropical storms have a high potential of becoming Gulf of Mexico hurricanes this week. It is unusual to have 2 systems this close to each other impacting the Gulf of Mexico coastline in the same week. Records suggests the last time was 1933.

Marco will most likely arrive on the Louisiana coastline in the next 48 hours as a Cat 1 cane. Laura still has to deal with Cuba and land friction but will enter prime conditions mid week for rapid intensification. UK, GFS and EC on tonight's 00Z runs are currently lining up a major hurricane strike on Galveston & Houston. Interesting week ahead.

Edit title to Hurricane Laura

[TonyT]

MJO is strengthening into the most favourable phases for Caribbean hurricane development in the next 7-10 days.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

If they join, will they be called Maura or Larco?

[Cyclone Tracy]

Main American hurricane model HWRF simulating a Laura cat 4' donut of destruction' IR image smashing into Texas in around 80 hours.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Marco is downgraded back to tropical storm status and is being shredded by wind shear from an upper trough as he approaches the coast. The downfall of Marco will benefit Laura in the long run.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Latest EC ensemble. There is probably around 10 to 15 million people in that path. Houston alone is around 6.3 million. A major hurricane with full evacuation centres during a pandemic, a brutal scenario.

[Cyclone Tracy]

EC 18Z run producing one of the great hurricane U.S land falls of the last century in 48 hours. The storm surge will be devastating to this part of the gulf coast.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Galveston is in a low lying area. Interesting to see what happens there?

[Cyclone Tracy]

Galveston is in a low lying area. Interesting to see what happens there?

Yes, low lying indeed. It's ground zero for the greatest natural disaster in U.S history , the year 1900. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1900_Galveston_hurricane

[Cyclone Tracy]

Main EC model is peaking Laura as a cat 5 direct hit on Galveston and Houston within 48 hours. Houston is the 4th largest city in the U.S with limited public transport, most people use cars. When the south eastern Texas population awake today and hear the news, this could be a similar residential panic scenario like Hurricane Rita in 2005, when nearly 4 million fled Houston creating the largest evacuation in United States history. Rita missed Houston to the east.

Laura is now moving off the Cuban coast and entering the Gulf of Mexico. Currently 55 knots, 995 hPa and soon to be officially become a hurricane.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Laura's cloud tops nearing -90c near the centre as she is starting to take shape with early signs of a developing eyewall.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Current NOAA aircon mission showing showing Laura has dropped to around 981 hPa, winds 70 knots. Very similar to latest satellite estimates using ADT. 18Z runs showing a crossing around the Texas, Louisiana border in 24 hours. Plenty of time of an east or west change wobble.

UK model has been a clear winner so far in predicting Laura's track. It's taking her slightly more west towards Houston on the 18Z run in the next 24 hours.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Mobile weather station deployment underway.

https://twitter.com/GregNordstrom/statu ... 5647394816

[Cyclone Tracy]

Inner eyewall lightning. Laura is going major. Latest ob, 973 hPa , wind 95 knots.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Eye has cleared out even more in the last hour with continued eyewall lightning on the eastern side. Beastly cat 4, plane recon showing around 949 hPa, 120 knots.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Daylight showing a text book major hurricane eyewall structure displaying the stadium effect with associated mesovortices as she starts a slow turn towards land. Air recon just reported 947 hPa, 123 knots at the surface. 14 knots off Cat 5. Inner eyewall lightning continues, as she continues to mature.

[Orion]

Galveston, Texas beach live webcam showing hurricane Laura impact LIVE | USA TODAY

At this stage there seem to be people wandering about in the breaking waves...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8nlHcudRl5k

[NZstorm]

SPC has an enhanced risk for tornadoes over Louisiana.

Gulf of Mexico hurricanes typically produce a lot of tornadoes.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Hurricane hunter missions will be fascinating over the next few hours. First fly over with the latest mission produced an extrapolated surface pressure of 937 hPa. Laura's air pressure continues to drop, she seems to be having a run at reaching the top shelf, Cat 5.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Record landfall sustained wind speed in the U.S is Hurricane Andrew (1992), 143 knots with peak gusts 152 knots. Laura is currently around sustained 130 knots in the gulf, just 7 knots off cat 5 now.

[Cyclone Tracy]

935 hPa, 130 knots. High end cat 4. Around 120 to 160 minutes until landfall.

[RODALCO]

Still image from Earth Nullschool

Cyclone Laura is almost making landfall, not looking good at all.

2020-08-27_15-52-55.jpg

[Cyclone Tracy]

Final flight recon just clocked Laura's pressure at 932.6 hPa. She is not weakening.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Last flight data from NOAA is bringing Laura to now 135 knots mean surface winds on the northern side. If verified, this is now 2 knots off cat 5. It's now all about checking land observations.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Link to the ground zero NOAA weather ob at Lake Charles airport Louisiana. https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=KLCH