Tropical Cyclone Niran

[Cyclone Tracy]

The BoM have now officially named the cyclone. Just starting a thread as Niran circles and moves through the coral sea.

[Chris W]

Current modelled course seems generally harmless to any land masses other than persistent rainfall along the Queensland coast.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Access's 18z run consolidates it's westward bias of a cat 3 Niran in the next 36 hours NE of Cairns. EC 18z also moved west as a cat 3 but further offshore.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Advanced Dvorak technique is now estimating Niran at 53 knots sustained 1 min. 2 knots under a cat 2.

edit: now sustained 55 knots 1 min. ADT estimates Niran is now a cat 2.

[Cyclone Tracy]

New BoM track map now showing the quick U turn towards the coast as a cat 3 before steering SE towards a trough.

[Cyclone Tracy]

JTWC latest now incorporating New Caledonia and the North Island in the cone of uncertainty over the next 5 days.

[Cyclone Tracy]

The south east turn is currently underway. Crucial 24 hours ahead to decide the direction of Niran longer term. Models are split due to what belief they hold on the ridge's strength. The main American hurricane model HWFR on the 18z run is producing a rapid intensification cat 5 top shelf attack on New Caledonia early Sunday morning.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Latest ADT estimate is around 75 knots. This unofficially elevates Niran is a cat 3 severe tropical cyclone.

[Chris W]

GFS also now taking Niran through the middle of New Caledonia, models seem to be trending northwards more and more as we go along.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Niran now 80 knots (150 km/h) sustained 1 min winds on ADT estimates.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Severe tropical cyclone Niran core is warming and he is starting to clear out his eye. Up to 85 knots, 962 hPa, cat 3

[Cyclone Tracy]

Niran’s core now on the BoM's Willis Island radar. The Island is down to 991 hPa. ADT estimates Niran now at 90 knots (1 min) and 958 hPa, 8 knots off a cat 4.

[Cyclone Tracy]

110 Knots, 944 hPa and a cat 4 with a pinhole eye.

[Cyclone Tracy]

115 knots (1 min), 940 hPa and his inner eyewall is erupting with lightning. Niran is going for cat 5.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Now a South Pacific top shelf cyclone. 140 knots, 917 hPa. Cat 5.

[Awhituobs]

woa!
so compact though ( south Pacific ones often are)
another CAT5 ...

[Awhituobs]

looking bad for New Caledonia
the mountains there will weaken it

[Cyclone Tracy]

[Chris W]

Looks dead set for a direct path through Noumea, slightly weekend at that point with 110kt sustained winds (JTWC) but still cat 5.

[Cyclone Tracy]

100 knots, 953 hPa, unofficially now a cat 4 on approach to Noumea. Backend of the eyewall is still sparking, so their will be decent mesovortices later tonight on the SW coast.

[Cyclone Tracy]

Latest EC 18z high res projection unleashing 200km+ guts around Noumea between 9pm to 3am NZT tonight. Niran has a nasty little backend.

[Chris W]

At least the heaviest rainfall stays offshore, but those are brutal winds.

[ScottyD]

Looking at that Webcam that Cyclone Tracey posted earlier, the winds have certainly picked up in the last couple of hours.

[Awhituobs]

check out that live cam now!

[Chris W]

That camera is rocking alright!