NZ Weather Forum

JP. wrote: ↑Wed 15/12/2021 14:21 I remember the March 2014 event well, my parents live just off riverlaw terrace and it was under waist deep water at the end. There is a chance this may produce more for this event tonight. Very worrying

Thankfully the city's flood protection is much better now than it was back then. In saying that, if we get up near 150mm, there will be some problems for sure.

snowchaser01 wrote: ↑Wed 15/12/2021 14:23

JP. wrote: ↑Wed 15/12/2021 14:21 I remember the March 2014 event well, my parents live just off riverlaw terrace and it was under waist deep water at the end. There is a chance this may produce more for this event tonight. Very worrying

Thankfully the city's flood protection is much better now than it was back then. In saying that, if we get up near 150mm, there will be some problems for sure.

Last week I biked past Hansen park and the water was extremely high, perhaps only 20-30cm below the height of peoples back lawns. I know sometimes that can be tidal though. Just checked the Buxton terrrace ECAN reading site in St Martins, Its current flow is 5.736 cumecs on an 7 day average of 0.95 so the Heathcote will be flowing well already.

Some darker colours starting to appear just offshore in Pegasus Bay. A few sites around ChCh are around the 50mm area so far, but some around the port hills are still only 10-20mm day to date

That'll be a warm front incoming looking at the MS pressure chart from 1pm, following the occluded front/trough that is pushing south. That warm front will be bringing plenty moisture with it and feeding into the warning area. Amberley (Rosewood PWS) over 43mm.

Approaching 20mm in Rolleston so just a good soaking for the garden so far.
I see Wesport is on 27°C so a cracking day on the coast...

Palmerston North must really be getting whacked right now with purple on the radar

Meanwhile Metservice has just dialled the numbers back a bit for ChCh. Phew. Still 100mm mind you

From facebook, from about 3pm Today (Weds 15/12)

"Popular butcher Peter Timbs on Edgeware Road in Christchurch has been forced to close its doors this afternoon, after flood waters went inside. Photo: Peter Timbs Meats you can still support their store in Bishopdale which is open!"

Coming back in heavier and darker again now, with much bigger drops than an hour ago. Just got past the 50mm mark.

Really coming down again in Ashburton. Had a brief lull of about 30 minutes to an hour.

Well this has certainly escalated in the last hour…

I see we do have slips on the road near us, after 130mm over 3 days

Razor wrote: ↑Wed 15/12/2021 15:34 Palmerston North must really be getting whacked right now with purple on the radar

Yes it's been thundering down here off and on this afternoon, right on cue. I don't know about severe thunderstorms, but certainly some real thundery tropical style rain. I can see some more cells approaching from the north on the radar, no doubt they will arrive just in time for my bike ride home from work which takes about an hour. Could be fun.

Good luck for those in Chch, that's quite a bit of rain coming for you guys.

Really starting to whack into Christchurch now... interesting evening on the way.

That rain band is very much backed-up out to sea now, here we go.

Edit - run the infrared satellite loop from early today to see the low spinning up and dragging moisture out of the atmospheric river across the North Island and just now towards Canterbury.

https://www.metservice.com/maps-radar/s ... a-infrared

Chris W wrote: ↑Wed 15/12/2021 16:37 That rain band is very much backed-up out to sea now, here we go.

heavy stuff has arrived in Lincoln. home to ChCh shortly, fun times

You can just start to see the southwest-wards curve of the North Island moisture towards the Canterbury coast beginning, as the new low pressure centre starts to form east of Cook Strait (pressure is dropping at about 1hpa/hr down the east coast from Wellington to Christchurch). Meanwhile the existing depression centre is exploding nicely west of Taranaki and will surely bring some active storms to the central NI overnight.

Can confirm 61mm in my gauge at home (northwood). Emptied it at 11pm last night... absolutely pounding down at present

Rough photo but you get the idea

Growler wrote: ↑Wed 15/12/2021 15:37 From facebook, from about 3pm Today (Weds 15/12)

"Popular butcher Peter Timbs on Edgeware Road in Christchurch has been forced to close its doors this afternoon, after flood waters went inside. Photo: Peter Timbs Meats you can still support their store in Bishopdale which is open!"

267365811_459854598836418_4130868897858785076_n.jpg

It floods there about 2-3 times a year. Drainage there hasn't been fixed for a while.

Different set up from now, as the depression centre builds east of Cook Strait. The dynamics are all changing. We've been lightly warm advecting so far today, but about to transition into weak cold advection. This process will take 6-12 hours, but should be enough to kill the rain once its established. Barometer is still falling, at a faster rate now than earlier this afternoon. The main issue will be the strength of the cyclogenesis as the depression deepens overnight. If its more rapid than the models have predicted (often happens, due to lee trough effect on east coast) then that would favour stronger winds and heavier rain. We are probably coming into the most uncertain period for the next 6-12 hours.

Blue Sky to the west here now.
50mm for event (3days).

Its very steady to heavy persistent rain here in Halswell. Game on for the next few hours. Problems are emerging closer to the CBD and the usual flooding spots going by Council communications

I'm in Halswell in Christchurch and it's raining moderate to heavy with big drops.

(Also I've recently moved to Christchurch)

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Persistent heavy rain last 90 mins or so. Approaching 30mm locally but I see some suburbs losing in on 50mm. Latest 3 day maps update from Metservice has this moving further south into the Canterbury Bight as oppose to hovering about Christchurch all night now. Only another 7mm projected.

Teeming down in Lyttelton, surface flooding on the way home next to Hansens (as you'd expect) and Port Hills Road. Nothing evident in the port except the gutters are pretty full!

On SH1 on the way home very bad potholes coming south out of Amberley, flooding at Saltwater Creek, iffy over Ashley Bridge and the Waimak bridge. Other than that not terrible, but wouldn't recommend getting out there now.