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Re: Tropical Atmospheric River 13-17 Dec
Posted: Wed 15/12/2021 19:03
by Razor
Metservice.com nowcasting suggests they think this well ease by 9pm?
Re: Tropical Atmospheric River 13-17 Dec
Posted: Wed 15/12/2021 19:05
by Cantab03
Razor wrote: ↑Wed 15/12/2021 19:03
Metservice.com nowcasting suggests they think this well ease by 9pm?
I would agree with that based on radar movement. Most of it will sit out at sea to the south of Banks Peninsula overnight.
Re: Tropical Atmospheric River 13-17 Dec
Posted: Wed 15/12/2021 19:27
by snowchaser01
Up to 84mm in my gauge now in Northwood
Re: Tropical Atmospheric River 13-17 Dec
Posted: Wed 15/12/2021 19:35
by ScottyD
Awhituobs wrote: ↑Wed 15/12/2021 16:07
I see we do have slips on the road near us, after 130mm over 3 days
Very similar numbers to what I’ve recorded over the last 3 days in East Auckland.
Re: Tropical Atmospheric River 13-17 Dec
Posted: Wed 15/12/2021 19:45
by Thunder081
In Halswell chch
Sent from my TA-1054 using Tapatalk
Re: Tropical Atmospheric River 13-17 Dec
Posted: Wed 15/12/2021 19:50
by Richard
Razor wrote: ↑Wed 15/12/2021 19:03
Metservice.com nowcasting suggests they think this well ease by 9pm?
Eased here and is looking much brighter to the north.
Ended up with 46mm here
Re: Tropical Atmospheric River 13-17 Dec
Posted: Wed 15/12/2021 19:52
by einzack
Much heavier these last couple hours in Rolleston.
Had 23mm total at 6pm, and now up to 50mm before 8pm.
Some impressive numbers north of Chch.
Re: Tropical Atmospheric River 13-17 Dec
Posted: Wed 15/12/2021 19:54
by Chris W
Eased right up now in Lyttelton. Amazing change in dynamics and explains why the modeling was so variable at times.
Edit - it has intensified again but the back edge is not far away.
Re: Tropical Atmospheric River 13-17 Dec
Posted: Wed 15/12/2021 20:01
by Lawrence
Absolutely chucking it down here in Kirwee. Doesn't seem to be letting up as well. Rain rates getting near 10mm an hour.
Re: Tropical Atmospheric River 13-17 Dec
Posted: Wed 15/12/2021 21:02
by Tuppence
So far for this event 60mm of rain in Rakaia township as at 9pm this evening.
Re: Tropical Atmospheric River 13-17 Dec
Posted: Wed 15/12/2021 21:04
by Tuppence
Dry Creek is in flood as per usual with the heavy rain events this year. Will be interesting to see what daylight brings for road conditions in the district tomorrow with this event.
Re: Tropical Atmospheric River 13-17 Dec
Posted: Wed 15/12/2021 21:04
by Razor
We dodged a bullet here in town. Main rain band is through hours earlier than predicted. Phew. 45mm here in Halswell with mabe 5-10 more until mid morning tomorrow by the looks. Interersting how northern parts of Christchurch have had up to double this amount
Re: Tropical Atmospheric River 13-17 Dec
Posted: Wed 15/12/2021 21:09
by Blowy
Similar huge variances thru Hawkes Bay.
One thing is certain, the forecasters have no idea how to predict these events (an observation only)
Re: Tropical Atmospheric River 13-17 Dec
Posted: Wed 15/12/2021 21:14
by snowchaser01
Razor wrote: ↑Wed 15/12/2021 21:04
We dodged a bullet here in town. Main rain band is through hours earlier than predicted. Phew. 45mm here in Halswell with mabe 5-10 more until mid morning tomorrow by the looks. Interersting how northern parts of Christchurch have had up to double this amount
Yep touched 90mm in my gauge... very decent numbers
Re: Tropical Atmospheric River 13-17 Dec
Posted: Wed 15/12/2021 22:53
by TonyT
Blowy wrote: ↑Wed 15/12/2021 21:09
Similar huge variances thru Hawkes Bay.
One thing is certain, the forecasters have no idea how to predict these events (an observation only)
Oh come on dude, play the ball not the man.
Re: Tropical Atmospheric River 13-17 Dec
Posted: Thu 16/12/2021 01:31
by Razor
TonyT wrote: ↑Wed 15/12/2021 22:53
Blowy wrote: ↑Wed 15/12/2021 21:09
Similar huge variances thru Hawkes Bay.
One thing is certain, the forecasters have no idea how to predict these events (an observation only)
Oh come on dude, play the ball not the man.
With you Tony, forecasters and models did pretty well given the variables in this event. It was always going to be a matter of where, not all!
Re: Tropical Atmospheric River 13-17 Dec
Posted: Thu 16/12/2021 02:59
by Blowy
'an observation only' = not a criticism.
Heed your own advice perhaps?
Re: Tropical Atmospheric River 13-17 Dec
Posted: Thu 16/12/2021 07:18
by Cantab03
55mm in my neck of the woods. Christchurch Airport collecting 66mm from the event so far. Looking at some of the images from late last night, especially with the Avon River, we definitely dodged a bullet from that rain not lingering overnight. This morning steady rain/drizzle has come back with some pockets of heavier rain mixed in. Perhaps another 10-15mm throughout the day and then another spell tomorrow. Grass was especially brown in the early stages of November but the complere reverse now, everything looking nice and lush!
Re: Tropical Atmospheric River 13-17 Dec
Posted: Thu 16/12/2021 07:50
by snowchaser01
96 in my gauge this morning... and counting. Might 110mm for the event today?
Re: Tropical Atmospheric River 13-17 Dec
Posted: Thu 16/12/2021 08:20
by TonyT
Blowy wrote: ↑Thu 16/12/2021 02:59
'an observation only' = not a criticism.
Heed your own advice perhaps?
Mate, you are so far wrong that it embarrasses you. And it insults me. Forecasters have many ideas on how to forecast these events and put them into practice every day, all around the world. That doesn't meant the events themselves are always predicted well, but thats because inherent in the nature of many aspects of the atmosphere is a degree of unpredictability. Forecasters have techniques for dealing with that too, but also a measure of realism about their own limitations. Feel free to observe and discuss the limitations of forecasting, and the extent to which certain events are harder to predict well than others, but lay off putting the boot into the people whose jobs it is to do that.
And don't be a coward and say that its "just an observation". It was a criticism of a group of people, and you can expect to be called out on it as such. If it was an observation you would have queried the prediction, not the predictors.
This forum has lost too many professionals as a result of childish comments like yours.
Re: Tropical Atmospheric River 13-17 Dec
Posted: Thu 16/12/2021 08:23
by Bradley
TonyT wrote: ↑Thu 16/12/2021 08:20
Blowy wrote: ↑Thu 16/12/2021 02:59
'an observation only' = not a criticism.
Heed your own advice perhaps?
Mate, you are so far wrong that it embarrasses you. And it insults me. Forecasters have many ideas on how to forecast these events and put them into practice every day, all around the world. That doesn't meant the events themselves are always predicted well, but thats because inherent in the nature of many aspects of the atmosphere is a degree of unpredictability. Forecasters have techniques for dealing with that too, but also a measure of realism about their own limitations. Feel free to observe and discuss the limitations of forecasting, and the extent to which certain events are harder to predict well than others, but lay off putting the boot into the people whose jobs it is to do that.
And don't be a coward and say that its "just an observation". It was a criticism of a group of people, and you can expect to be called out on it as such. If it was an observation you would have queried the prediction, not the predictors.
This forum has lost too many professionals as a result of childish comments like yours.
Your forecast of approx 70mm for Christchurch on your livestream was spot on Tony, Metservice got it badly wrong but it was a tough system to forecast but you are definitely the one to listen to in these events, not Metservice. That’s just an opinion I’ve formed from the last 5 years based on observations of your forecasts
Re: Tropical Atmospheric River 13-17 Dec
Posted: Thu 16/12/2021 08:27
by Chris W
With you Tony, it was a very variable event model-wise and as we saw a subtle shift in the actual dynamics produced a major change in the outcome late yesterday. MS initially went for 100-160mm for the city (showing the variability in potential outcomes) - parts of town will be in that range if gauges on this forum are a guide - and there was surface flooding and road damage on local roads as well as highways as well as dangerous driving conditions. So I'd say forecasters did well, if not nailing it 100%.
Re: Tropical Atmospheric River 13-17 Dec
Posted: Thu 16/12/2021 09:35
by Razor
Thanks Tony 100% support your comments and summary above. Criticism should be constructive and considered, and backed up with evidence, not a lazy one liner
Re: Tropical Atmospheric River 13-17 Dec
Posted: Thu 16/12/2021 10:56
by Razor
Tipping down here in Lincoln this morning, its actually wetter here than yesterday was. Seems to be a good avenue of intensity going through the middle of the Port Hills too, more rain this morning than expected thats for sure- 35mm in Bowenvale Valley for eg today so far on top of 67mm yesterday
Re: Tropical Atmospheric River 13-17 Dec
Posted: Thu 16/12/2021 11:54
by Cantab03
Yes the rain is back and very steady in town.
