Thoughts on Winter 2022?

[talbotmj15]

For anyone interested Tony T did a brilliant livestream on the BlueSkies 2.0 and Canterbury Snow and Weatherwatch Facebook page last night. Its called sussing the seasons. He went into some great data and insight into what we might see over the next 6 months or so.

Talking about Analogue years, SAM models, LA-Nina vs El-Nino etc.

It appears LA nina is hanging around this year for a potential 3 year in a row which is very unusual. For us here in Canterbury i fear its going to be colder by day due to gloomy conditions and warmer by night due to less frosts .

Winds mostly easterly quarter which will mean wetter potentially for Canterbury. This could also manifest itself as some good snow dumps. Especially for the Eastern Fields. Mt Hutt, Craigieburn's to some degree, Dobbo, Mt Lyford and Fox Peak.

Thats my take anyway.

[Bradley]

After last season's winter prediction and what actually occured I have no thoughts or predictions whatsoever haha. No offence intended but it seems the models can struggle ahead of time when it comes to winter. Will be very happy if it does turn out to be colder during the day though, love the colder weather

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Probably more cloudier than usual resulting in mild night temperatures making the winter of 2022 the hottest ever?

[talbotmj15]

Probably more cloudier than usual resulting in mild night temperatures making the winter of 2022 the hottest ever?

There is some suggestion in terms of winter being hotter at night as you say it will be cloudier and therefore there wont be as many frosts. Day time temperatures will be colder due to cloudier than normal.

Im still a bit confused as we always seem to see changeable weather in May/June with a period of generally settled weather in July then more changeable weather in Aug/Sep.

Will be interested to see how it plays out i guess.

[Lawrence]

Interesting I thought;
https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-we ... luence-fa/

[harleyb]

Interesting I thought;
https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-we ... luence-fa/

Yes, thanks, an interesting read. But I'm not too clear on the implications for the southern summer. It seems to be quite a significant event so presumably we will see some kind of effect, but what, exactly?

[Awhituobs]

i suspect it might mean that the polar vortex is not as likely to have break away events
(with the stratosphere warming slower than normal and so the polar vortex staying intact for longer)
i.e so less likely to see polar spring outbreaks (not good news for Ruapehu ski field)

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

I hate the way the media saying that this winter was the hottest winter on record. Not hot but warm.
I know we have global warming/climate change issues, whatever, but to say that the winter was hot, it's silly. Warmest maybe.
Judging by the look at my woodshed, I wouldn't say it was the hottest winter we've had, inside maybe
I know that North Island parts have had record warmth this winter with lack of snow around central areas but it's been cold down here.
Interesting to say also that with the amount of rain that has fallen this winter, no mention was said about the Tongan eruption which would of produced a lot of water vapour into the atmosphere contributing to the AR and low pressure systems moving down from the sub-tropics.

[spwill]

I'll put the Winter climate summary from Niwa here, warm and wet. kerikeri airport with 1103mm,Kerikeri with a mean maximum temperature of 17.4C.
https://niwa.co.nz/sites/niwa.co.nz/fil ... A-web2.pdf