General October Weather

[spwill]

Unsettled weather across the country by Wednesday.
Moist frontal activity will bring some thunderstorm risk to the upper North Island later Wednesday/early Thursday, the risk will be mainly over Northland and probably on the low side, see how this looks tomorrow.

[wembley]

Last hurrah of the SSW event?

[spwill]

The NW flow here on Thursday looks cool for a NW flow. GFS has the Auckland dew point dropping to around 5-6C, unusual. Warmer moist air starts moving back in Friday increasing shower risk for Friday/Saturday

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

A mainly cloudy day to start off October with middle range cloud and a late NWArch developing with some lenticular forms.
Low cloud/fog moving in this evening. 15C for today.

[Kobi]

Metservice in its October monthly outlook expects the South Island to see a wet first 2 weeks of October (wonderful timing considering those 2 weeks are school holidays) and a dry but possibly frosty second half of the month dominated by high pressure, the North Island is likely to see a wet first half and a wetter second half of the month however, with more subtropical / tasman sea low pressure systems hitting between the highs which are expected to stay present over the South Island.

though should also be noted that predictability for anything far out is poor in the middle of spring, so we could see an entirely different situation.

[Orion]

Overcast lowering, becoming quite dull; cloud filling in towards the south.
Southerly breeze; am sure there are little drops of rain in the air.
48% humidity; 18.4°C.

[spwill]

Metservice in its October monthly outlook expects the South Island to see a wet first 2 weeks of October (wonderful timing considering those 2 weeks are school holidays) and a dry but possibly frosty second half of the month dominated by high pressure, the North Island is likely to see a wet first half and a wetter second half of the month however, with more subtropical / tasman sea low pressure systems hitting between the highs which are expected to stay present over the South Island.

though should also be noted that predictability for anything far out is poor in the middle of spring, so we could see an entirely different situation.

October-November are generally the months we see a lot of stable southwest flow over northern NZ as high pressure starts liking the central Tasman Sea, it will be interesting to see how much low pressure we get over the North Island.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

A generally cloudy day with it coming onto rain from 3pm. High NW cloud very slowly moving over but quite hazy looking. Light southerly from early afternoon and continuing this evening although it was a little fresh around 8pm. 17.6C the maximum for today with 9.4mm falling to 10pm tonight.

[spwill]

The front has moved away SE of here now. Close to 50mm at the airport and Grey Lynn overnight. Watching Saturday afternoon for more heavy showers with possible thunder here.

[Razor]

Red rain warning issued by MS for Dunedin and surrounds.

Heavy Rain Warning - Red

Area: North Otago, Dunedin and coastal Clutha

Period: 34hrs from 11am Thu, 3 Oct - 9pm Fri, 4 Oct

Forecast: Expect 120 to 150 mm of rain with the heaviest falls about the eastern hills. Peak rates of 8 to 15 mm/h. Note that the amount and duration of rain is highly unusual for this area and it may cause major impacts.

Impact: Threat to life from dangerous river conditions, significant flooding and slips. Conditions will disrupt travel, make some roads impassable, and isolate communities.

Action: Do not enter floodwaters and avoid travel. Act quickly to self-evacuate if you see rising water. Be ready for power and communications outages. Preparedness advice.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Rain here overnight but easing away from late morning. Remaining grey and overcast all day with it coming onto drizzle later this afternoon and evening. SW winds for much of the day easing this evening. 12C the maximum for today with 22.2mm of rain, most of it falling overnight.

[spwill]

Much of the North Island and upper South Island in line for some heavy showers tomorrow, the thunderstorm risk is mainly north of Taupo in the afternoon.

[Storm Struck]

Some good localised thick light rain this morning in town, didn't seem to stick around for too long though.
Some sunshine now with cumulus humulus forms about, maximum of around 12mm the past few days.

A small trough feature crosses into Canterbury on Monday afternoon with a risk of some heavy showers and maybe thunder.
But Wednesday late afternoon is presenting itself as a strong set up at this stage, with good cold upper air moving in late in the day with the southerly change.
One to keep a close eye on.

[darcyplumb]

Some good localised thick light rain this morning in town, didn't seem to stick around for too long though.
Some sunshine now with cumulus humulus forms about, maximum of around 12mm the past few days.

A small trough feature crosses into Canterbury on Monday afternoon with a risk of some heavy showers and maybe thunder.
But Wednesday late afternoon is presenting itself as a strong set up at this stage, with good cold upper air moving in late in the day with the southerly change.
One to keep a close eye on.

I’m assuming there will be issues over the next few months with lack of warnings for severe thunderstorms due to the reduced radar coverage. Is there a way to notify MS with photos/evidence of severe storm criteria? Large hail, damaging winds, heavy rain? The rain we’ve had over the last few days has highlighted to me that there really is no coverage over Chch and the wider Plains area.

[mikestormchaser]

Some low level instability around parts of north and mid Canterbury this afternoon.

Yes wensday is a day to watch out for eastern otago/ Canterbury. And yes will be chasing blind unfortunately if there is storms until mid December when the new MS radar is going

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Rain overnight and this morning easing to drizzly showers until early afternoon with a total of 18.4mm for today.
Trying to clear but low cloud remaining rather in charge in rather moisturist humidity conditions.13.3C the maximum for today.
Low cloud and a bit of drizzle this evening.
Interesting windflow with this current weather event. Winds mainly from the WSW to South, here, when it should of been easterly, which was the general rainflow direction for Dunedin and winds were forecasted to come from that direction but didn't eventuate, or did they ?

[spwill]

Looking ahead to Monday there is thunderstorm risk for many areas, the thunder risk here is on Monday morning.
Eastern Canterbury/ Otago have thunderstorm risk in the afternoon with some heavy showers developing there.

[Orion]

Some low level instability around parts of north and mid Canterbury this afternoon.

Yes wensday is a day to watch out for eastern otago/ Canterbury. And yes will be chasing blind unfortunately if there is storms until mid December when the new MS radar is going

The Spies and I will do our best to provide reports On The Ground

Good to see the sun today.
A few clouds at times.
Northerly; 13°C at the moment.

[mikestormchaser]

Looking ahead to Monday there is thunderstorm risk for many areas, the thunder risk here is on Monday morning.
Eastern Canterbury/ Otago have thunderstorm risk in the afternoon with some heavy showers developing there.

Yes a few chances across the north and south island over the next few days. And yeah Mondays charts look better for eastern areas this morning for Monday afternoon.

[spwill]

Have a very heavy shower here currently.

[spwill]

Some thunder heard here.

[mikestormchaser]

Nice Cumulus bubbling up inland this afternoon towards foothills, some castalanus atocumulus spreading across the plains aswel, the land is heating up! Springs definitely here.

I see some nice thunder activity around Hamilton and the surrounding areas today.

[darcyplumb]

Stunning cumulus looking from Ashburton towards the Mayfield/Mt Peel area.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

A couple of rumbles of thunder TC area just now

[dogmelon]

It's even showing on the dodgy radar. Neat. Enjoy.