Tasman Low

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Mon 04/10/2004 20:16

Models are predicting a large, shallow, slow moving low forming over the Tasman Sea this week and approaching the North Island slowly.
Such a situation could provide unstable conditions over the northern half of the North island from about Thursday as mild humid air is dragged down from the north. Heavy rain and thunder possible from about Thursday.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Mon 04/10/2004 20:58

NZstorm wrote:Models are predicting a large, shallow, slow moving low forming over the Tasman Sea this week and approaching the North Island slowly.
Such a situation could provide unstable conditions over the northern half of the North island from about Thursday as mild humid air is dragged down from the north. Heavy rain and thunder possible from about Thursday.

How boring

JohnGaul
NZTS

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Mon 04/10/2004 21:18

Yes, the charts around the weekend have a Thundery look to them mostly for the NorthIsalnd at this stage.
About time.

John, STAY OFF THE ROOF.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Mon 04/10/2004 21:29

spwill wrote:Yes, the charts around the weekend have a Thundery look to them mostly for the NorthIsalnd at this stage.
About time.

John, STAY OFF THE ROOF.

My wife has hidden the ladder

Weather boring for us down in the south though

JohnGaul
NZTS

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Mon 04/10/2004 22:00

WHATS NEW

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Tue 05/10/2004 10:58

Yes Steven W. Conditions certainly look good for some thunder and into the weekend to for you guys up there, provided everything pans out how things are predicted. So, go do some storm chasing!!

I wouldn't rule out some thundery action for us aswell at this stage coming up. But chances aren't as high as up north of course.

Manukau heads obs · Tue 05/10/2004 13:16

hopefullyu ricky has his new boltek up and running by the weekend!

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Tue 05/10/2004 18:44

I wouldn't rule out some thundery action for us aswell at this stage coming up. But chances aren't as high as up north of course.

Significant shower activity seems to have spread to many parts of Canterbury today, but not around Chch, according to the radar. Just cloudy here, with the odd ray of sunshine.

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Tue 05/10/2004 20:18

we had a few spots of rain here 20 minutes ago!

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Tue 05/10/2004 20:26

Oh man! I'm envious at you guys up there. Things are looking good for you! This Friday in the afternoon then Sunday aswell! Alot of the North Island looks good down to Wellington although the further north the better I think.

I wounder if we'll get anything??

Perhaps if the low is complex and splits with one side of it sitting out east of us then maybe!

Chase! Chase chase!!

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Wed 06/10/2004 11:39

Another southerly change has arrived this morning in Chch and sent the temperature down from 15C (at 9.50AM) to 9C (according to Jeffsweather). Cloudy, but no sign of rain. The wind is quite gusty though.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Wed 06/10/2004 18:22

I wounder if we'll get anything??

Aaron, a chance of Isolated afternoon thunderstorms over the South Island on Saturday. If it were December I would be more confident.
But a chance there for Saturday afternoon I think.

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Wed 06/10/2004 18:31

Still dry in central Chch, even though scattered rain is forecast - must be scattered elsewhere, ie out to sea and on the Alps. (according to radar)

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Wed 06/10/2004 22:36

Rain is setting in now. Apparently the southerly was cold enough earlier today (according to TV1 Weather) to bring a dusting of snow to Ranfurly and Naseby in eastern Central Otago. (Ranfurly is about 400m asl)

Fujita Phil · Unread post by **Fujita Phil** » Wed 06/10/2004 22:54

Yes I can confirm a dusting on the Maungatua's this morning (the hills behind the airport)

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Wed 06/10/2004 23:48

Yes rain here to tich. Not heavy but something, maybe it might pick up a bit more.

Thanks for the heads up Steven W.

Yes, if it were a little later in the year things would have a better feel to it.

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Thu 07/10/2004 08:22

Yes the rain did pick up. I woke up at least once during the night to heavy rain on the roof, and going by what was on the rain radar it was heavy!!

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Thu 07/10/2004 09:02

Rain ceased about dawn. Still cloudy, but a bit of weak sunshine.

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Thu 07/10/2004 13:06

That rain radar shows some heavy rain last night at 4am. I didn't notice it or wake up though. Was it really that heavy? This is what I'm affraid of. A big lightning storm will come through at night and I'll sleep through it, everyone will say, "Aaron, did you see that storm last night etc etc", "No" I'll say and everyone will laugh at me.

Anyway.....!!!

Some interesting clouds outside. I guess it's something to do with a convergence between the ENE and S quater winds. An unstable sky...it would help if the pressure was a bit lower and the dewpoit higher and the general temp a bit higher to, so maybe nothing today??

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Thu 07/10/2004 13:09

Yeah they do dont they Aaron, but nothing of substance!

Aaron what do you think of that picture, I have got a bigger better copy at home on the computer, had too make that one 30% smaller!!

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Thu 07/10/2004 13:29

Persistent morning rain in Auckland has eased right now but the Radar shows there is plenty more not far away.

Manukau heads obs · Thu 07/10/2004 13:37

cold here in the auckland area
only 12oC with rain
thats still winter temperatures
gone more easterly now

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Thu 07/10/2004 15:16

I just took a pan which looks ok I guess, best one I've done so far in terms of lining up the images correctly. I did this one with my hands but it would look better done with a tripod.

Shows stuff out to the west of the city.

To the south and NNE things look interesting. Other photo is of clouds to the NNE.

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Thu 07/10/2004 15:16

cold here in the auckland area
only 12oC with rain
thats still winter temperatures
gone more easterly now

About 12C in Chch too - but probably not cold enough to be called a 'winter' temperature here, but certainly not summery either. Cloudy, but not raining, though drizzle could still be possible.

This is what I'm affraid of. A big lightning storm will come through at night and I'll sleep through it,

You must be either a deep sleeper or sleep in a room with no window to the outside. I would certainly be awakened if there was a major electrical storm raging.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Thu 07/10/2004 15:43

Dark sky and mod to heavy rain over Auckland this afternoon. Cool 12c, dewpoint 11c but both should rise this Evening.

Aaron, your photo shows a good sky for light showers or Drizzle but a very stable layer at the medium level.

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