A wee while away but...

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Sat 09/10/2004 15:46

Thursday 14th of October will hopefully see Auckland-Waikato-BoP's first real day of summer with temps in the range of 20-24c. Australia, which is where the heat originates from is finally heating up...

GFS are usually accurate and they better have this right!

Mostly cloudy now, N winds increasing now, 18c, still no showers as MS forecasted

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sat 09/10/2004 17:47

A cloudy westerly that day so it would only happen in the Bay of Plenty. Need the sun up here at this time of the year to get temps up to 20c. We dont get the Fohn wind like some other parts of NZ.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sat 09/10/2004 17:58

yes, well a warmer than what we have been getting week looks likely here in Chch, with the usual westerlies coming up for October

JohnGaul
NZTS

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Sat 09/10/2004 18:01

Just boring weather all the second half of the year

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Sat 09/10/2004 20:41

yes, well a warmer than what we have been getting week looks likely here in Chch, with the usual westerlies coming up for October

Chch's (well the Airport if that's where the Press gets its readings) average daily max for October is 17C, but we're 9 days into the month, and I think the warmest it has got is 15C. A westerly or northwesterly day would certainly be welcome here.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Sat 09/10/2004 21:21

At least its a lot drier down there unlike up here where its rained nonstop or blows all the time or both

tich wrote:
yes, well a warmer than what we have been getting week looks likely here in Chch, with the usual westerlies coming up for October
Chch's (well the Airport if that's where the Press gets its readings) average daily max for October is 17C, but we're 9 days into the month, and I think the warmest it has got is 15C. A westerly or northwesterly day would certainly be welcome here.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Sat 09/10/2004 21:53

A wee while away but... could be Xmas Could be January Could be February or even March or next summer

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Sat 09/10/2004 22:37

At least its a lot drier down there unlike up here where its rained nonstop or blows all the time or both

It certainly hasn't been raining non-stop like you say it has been in Auckland (or almost non-stop like Chch in early spring 2000), but most days lately have been cloudy, with some drizzle or light showers at times.

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Mon 11/10/2004 19:21

Last night, (Akaroa) I heard the sound of hail, and then saw a few flashes to the northwest... but then I woke up to find the night was fine, and it stayed that way today, despite a gradual increase in high cloud. Earlier forecasts of a cold southerly change with showers tonight have been abandoned by MetService, otherwise that dream I had could've become reality. Felt warm out of the wind, but not in the wind, and I see Chch has had yet another cooler than normal day.

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Mon 11/10/2004 20:29

I see a couple of strikes assicoated with the front in Southland

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Tue 12/10/2004 19:52

A westerly or northwesterly day would certainly be welcome here.

Tomorrow should be the day, with MetService using the word 'very warm' in its forecast, and TV1 Weather giving a predicted max of 25C for Chch. A mild airflow is already over us, but the northeasterly has been keeping things cool today.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Tue 12/10/2004 20:13

Pigs will fly too

Foggy Hamilton wrote:Thursday 14th of October will hopefully see Auckland-Waikato-BoP's first real day of summer with temps in the range of 20-24c. Australia, which is where the heat originates from is finally heating up...

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Tue 12/10/2004 20:59

Interesting too see Metservice (dont no what blueskies forcasted but would presume they too NW) forecasted NW all day, but we had ENE all day!! with gusts up to 50 kmph at one point!!!

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Tue 12/10/2004 21:07

No, Blue Skies' forecast was for NE winds in Canterbury today, with NW freshening inland late in the day. Actually, it was so obvious that it was going to be NE in Canty today - only blind faith in a computer model and a total lack of understanding of how our climate works would have lead anyone to predict NW in Canterbury today.

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Tue 12/10/2004 21:13

TonyT wrote: with NW freshening inland late in the day.

.........would have lead anyone to predict NW in Canterbury today.

But you did??

opps I posted twice!

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Tue 12/10/2004 21:14

TonyT wrote: with NW freshening inland late in the day.

.........would have lead anyone to predict NW in Canterbury today.

But you did??
I dont notice any NW late in the day?

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Tue 12/10/2004 21:31

03 Stormchaser wrote:
TonyT wrote: with NW freshening inland late in the day.

.........would have lead anyone to predict NW in Canterbury today.
But you did??
I dont notice any NW late in the day?

Ok, if you want to be pedantic, I will correct myself, "...would have lead anyone to predict NW in Christchurch today".

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Tue 12/10/2004 21:43

TonyT wrote:No, Blue Skies' forecast was for NE winds in Canterbury today, with NW freshening inland late in the day. Actually, it was so obvious that it was going to be NE in Canty today - only blind faith in a computer model and a total lack of understanding of how our climate works would have lead anyone to predict NW in Canterbury today.

Ok what I ment was what you say doesnt make sense, well too me anyway.

You say you forecasted NE wind and then NW inland late in the day which as far as I can tell hasnt yet arrived, then you go on too say that (in basic english) only an idiot would have predicted NW!!

As far as I can tell blueskies have forcasted a NW!!

Anyway this is what metservice had for today:
Situation for all New Zealand issued at 06:39pm Tuesday 12-Oct-2004
A fresh to strong west to northwest flow is expected to cover New Zealand during the next few days. A front should move onto the lower South Island during Wednesday evening.

and in short Fine, high cloud. Northwester at times

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Tue 12/10/2004 22:13

03 Stormchaser wrote:
TonyT wrote:No, Blue Skies' forecast was for NE winds in Canterbury today, with NW freshening inland late in the day. Actually, it was so obvious that it was going to be NE in Canty today - only blind faith in a computer model and a total lack of understanding of how our climate works would have lead anyone to predict NW in Canterbury today.
Ok what I ment was what you say doesnt make sense, well too me anyway.

You say you forecasted NE wind and then NW inland late in the day which as far as I can tell hasnt yet arrived, then you go on too say that (in basic english) only an idiot would have predicted NW!!

As far as I can tell blueskies have forcasted a NW!!

Anyway this is what metservice had for today:
Situation for all New Zealand issued at 06:39pm Tuesday 12-Oct-2004
A fresh to strong west to northwest flow is expected to cover New Zealand during the next few days. A front should move onto the lower South Island during Wednesday evening.

and in short Fine, high cloud. Northwester at times

The forecast I wrote yesterday did predict a NW for INLAND Cantebury LATE in the day. That seems to be happening now. As far as I can see your orginal complaint was that the wind was forecast to be NW in Christchurch and hadnt been, and you suggested Blue Skies had probably forecast this as well. My point was to correct you, no, Blue Skies did not forecast a NW wind in Christchurch today, we correctly forecast a NE wind, and to illustrate the point I quoted the forecast I wrote. You can pick holes all you want in that, but I addressed the question you raised.

I went further to suggest that, in my opinion, most forecasters with local knowledge of NZ conditions and a scepticism for taking model output too literally would have also predicted NE for Canterbury today. I didnt call anyone an idiot. Predicting a NE for Canterbury today doesnt preclude also predicting a change to the NW later if that was looking likely. The error you pointed out in MetService's forecast would appear to be that they didnt forecast the wind you got all day, the error you try to see in my forecast would appear to be that the wind didnt go NW inland later, even though the wind you got all day was exactly what I predicted.

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Tue 12/10/2004 22:21

Just to be sure I checked yesterday's forecast files. Our brief city forecast for Christchurch for today was "moderate northeasterlies, fine, max 14". According to the NZCH metars the max was 15 today with NE all day.

The regional forecast on Fencepost, ATS and in our forecasts to clients was "Mostly fine and sunny on Tuesday with moderate northeasterly winds, but westerlies freshening inland by evening."

Here in Amberley the wind has been NE all day but has died away in the last hour or two and a few light puffs of west or northwest are starting, but that wind couldnt be described as "freshening" yet.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Tue 12/10/2004 23:06

I can remember BlueSkies forecast of Ne then Nw later which usually happens but the MetService did say or gave an impression of a NW day, all day, for Chch, not a moderate to fresh ENE.
... but then their forecast wasn't corrected on the Weather Today website for ChCh for today's weather on the 11th.

I don't know what conditions existed inland

Mild now at 11.8c here with a hint of a light northerly

JohnGaul
NZTS

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Wed 13/10/2004 00:12

Comon Steve! Tony did a good job and you know it!

Tony is saying one would have to have blind faith in models to predict an outright NW situation from coast to coast. He's right in saying NE for Chch and Westerlies later in the day for inland areas. John is correct, we can't tell what's happening inland even by what the airports reading, on the grand scale of things the airport isn't really inland, Darfield etc I would call inland.

I think you'll find Tony and his team do an excelent Job, you have to support in times of bad and good (and I'm not saying today's forecast was bad because it's pretty much right in my mind). It's not as if we post on here all the time, "Tony you've done a good job" (although sometimes we do

). So I take it people are happy with the forecasts given.

It's like this hummer mailing list I belong to. Most of the time you get people writing stuff on there about how there truck is broken down or somethings wrong etc (small percentage). Some people who join this list begin to think hummers are a problem vehical when they see these posts. The thing is, hummers do work very well (the majority). It's just that people aren't going to post, "My hummer is working fine today etc", why would you bother?

Is that a good analogy? lol

Anyway.....!!

John, are you going to do Hallowen this year? I presume you'll dress up as a ghoul?

Off to bed.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Wed 13/10/2004 05:11

Dress up as a GALE

Aaron J Wilkinson wrote: John, are you going to do Hallowen this year? I presume you'll dress up as a ghoul?

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Wed 13/10/2004 11:22

Tomorrow should be the day, with MetService using the word 'very warm' in its forecast, and TV1 Weather giving a predicted max of 25C for Chch.

Already 23.9C here in Chch.

(Jeffsweather) Expecting gusty westerlies later today and overnight, but only a gentle breeze so far.

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Wed 13/10/2004 13:19

tich wrote:
Tomorrow should be the day, with MetService using the word 'very warm' in its forecast, and TV1 Weather giving a predicted max of 25C for Chch.
Already 23.9C here in Chch. (Jeffsweather) Expecting gusty westerlies later today and overnight, but only a gentle breeze so far.

make that 26.2C Im glad im working in an aircondition building!, NW have now picked up in strength!

NZ Weather Forum

A wee while away but...

A wee while away but...

Re: A wee while away but...