The passage of an upper level trough may induce thunderstorm activity over the South Island on Tuesday and the North Island on Wednesday.
Issued: 15 October
This was quoted by MetService....and they have maintained that in the Severe Weather Outlooks since then
Where are they likely to happen?
I have my batteries in my video camera charged just incase they move over Canterbury
Can't wait
My thoughts on this upper trough is that the air coming with it will be fairly dry. For decent convection there will need to be some good surface heating with it. But thunder/hail a slight possibility over inland North Island Wednesday, mainly over the central high country.
NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:The passage of an upper level trough may induce thunderstorm activity over the South Island on Tuesday and the North Island on Wednesday.
Issued: 15 October
This was quoted by MetService....and they have maintained that in the Severe Weather Outlooks since then
JohnGaul
NZTS
I see the have changed this now just to the north Island for wednesday, Still there are some small build ups now appearing above BP
03 Stormchaser wrote:I see the have changed this now just to the north Island for wednesday, Still there are some small build ups now appearing above the BP
Same here. A few build-ups to the West... camera in the car, ready to go
There is no such thing as bad weather, just the wrong clothes.
Metservice have forcasted for Canterbury and Otago "Showers developing this afternoon with isolated thunderstorms,
Showers clearing overnight and becoming fine"
Who knows what we might have in CHCH with the current NE blowing!
There's a great looking build-up WSW of here, but a bit hard to photograph. A long way away, looking in the direction of the big round sunny thing and some idiot put a big hill in the way.
Also another one a little more WNW of here that seems to be losing it's form minute by minute?
Oh well, I can only but observe and see what happens
There is no such thing as bad weather, just the wrong clothes.
Thunderstorms like the warmth, It's a shame you have had such a cool day down there.
Deano in Qld might see a storm this Evening looking at the current satellite.
Still there are some small build ups now appearing above BP
No more than a bit of cumulus over BP. I did notice cb clouds over the Alps as I was coming back into Chch around 5PM today - a large 'thunderhead' looked as if it was over about the Tekapo area. Also some thin but unstable looking white high cloud inland. (I'm not sure what it's called)
NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:Picking up a few sfreicals, nothing much on Stephen's lightning detector tho', just a couple of strikes off Fjordland. Seem closer than that
JohnGaul
NZTS
It's overestimating the range of the strikes in that direction - Ricky mentioned a similar issue with storms in Waikato appearing Wairarapa. I've adjusted the ranging a bit but I'll leave more tinkering until later.
The direction has been corrected as well but appears to be wrong on the combined StormVue
The strikes are about 150km from here where Ben saw the thunderhead.
NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:Picking up a few sfreicals, nothing much on Stephen's lightning detector tho', just a couple of strikes off Fjordland. Seem closer than that
JohnGaul
NZTS
.........immmmmmmmmmm thinking
more strikes off the Fjordland/ south Westland coast, moving NE
...maybe what I'm picking up, is that plus mostly CC ?
This is an upper level trough development.
Imagine if this was combined with something on the surface???
I thought Cu development was rather weak around the Port Hills and when I checked to see that the barometer was about standard pressure so not really expecting anything to happen...but the sfrecals maintain my alertness at 3
JohnGaul
NZTS[/color
PS. how come on this forum there hasn't been any mention/reports from Hawkes Bay storm?
No more than a bit of cumulus over BP. I did notice cb clouds over the Alps as I was coming back into Chch around 5PM today - a large 'thunderhead' looked as if it was over about the Tekapo area.
7PM radar still shows a bright patch over the Mackenzie Country.
Well Aaron and I have 'again' picked up a bad case of Stormchasing! (Left at about 6pm and have just gotten back 10pm) We were off again today chasing what was a decent towering cb, We plotted it somewere over Ashbourton way, but must have been much further south.
We headed south to Dunsandal, then inland thru Hororata, and up to Mt Somers thru the Rakaia Gorge and finally back to CHCH via the main south road, all up about 250km all for a couple of spots of rain and a possible 'flash' of lightning!!
03 Stormchaser wrote:Well Aaron and I have 'again' picked up a bad case of Stormchasing! (Left at about 6pm and have just gotten back 10pm) We were off again today chasing what was a decent towering cb, We plotted it somewere over Ashbourton way, but must have been much further south.
We headed south to Dunsandal, then inland thru Hororata, and up to Mt Somers thru the Rakaia Gorge and finally back to CHCH via the main south road, all up about 250km all for a couple of spots of rain and a possible 'flash' of lightning!!
Yup we have got it bad!!
sorry fellas , you had a bit of a bad day.
Even tho' you can can see castelatus clouds in the moonlight now.
NZTS Potential Alertnes No 3 now cancelled
Nothing much on the horizon
