Australia Hot - New Zealand Cold

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sat 11/12/2004 22:38

At the moment, it looks as though it will continue to be a very cold December for the nation, with crappy cold SW instituted weather

With heating over the continent of Australia, it looks as though the colder weather will continue over us with anticyclones trying to form will be rather weak allowing the southerly airstreams to continue.
Apart from December 7th, pressures have been rather low.
Although I would hate to admit it, we need a good anticyclone to move over us to stimulate some interesting or warmer weather?
What does the panel think?

JohnGaul
NZTS

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Sat 11/12/2004 23:29

Probably have to wait till Autumn now

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Sat 11/12/2004 23:42

Monday looks fine, warmish, and calmish. Showers clearing for AK..

Andy · Unread post by **Andy** » Sun 12/12/2004 08:07

Yes i agree bring back the summer temps, i am sick to death of the wind as i work outside

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Sun 12/12/2004 09:16

stop moaning

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Sun 12/12/2004 11:56

Bring on the violins

03 Stormchaser wrote:stop moaning

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Sun 12/12/2004 14:17

Nails in the coffin:

This time last year we rose to 28c , 98% humidity all day and thunderstorms

That kind of temperature with humidity is probably only ever felt from Waikato to King Country inc. Northland in NZ

Dean. · Unread post by **Dean.** » Sun 12/12/2004 15:59

Conditions in Cans this arvo,
Temperature 29.8
Dewpoint 25.4
Cheers.

GreggWard · Unread post by **GreggWard** » Sun 12/12/2004 16:38

This time last year we rose to 28c , 98% humidity all day and thunderstorms

Yes, this day last year, Palmerston North reached 25.7C. The average overall temperature for December according to my Weather Station in Palmy, for 2003, was 17.0C. So far this December it is at 14.3C.

I too, am getting sick of these dreary cold strong winds from the westerly quarter.

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Sun 12/12/2004 16:47

Strong Southwesterly flow to stablise on tuesday then persist right through to next weekend according to MRF and GFS models

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sun 12/12/2004 17:41

A cloudy, fresh SouthWesterly here today, 20c the high ,14c the low, Currently 18C. Boring weather but mid week might bring some thing interesting.

I see Sydney has a severe Thunderstorm this afternoon although their Radar shows the storm weakening.

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Sun 12/12/2004 21:20

Yes, this day last year, Palmerston North reached 25.7C. The average overall temperature for December according to my Weather Station in Palmy, for 2003, was 17.0C. So far this December it is at 14.3C.

I too, am getting sick of these dreary cold strong winds from the westerly quarter.[/quote]

SW anomaly is not so bad for us...even when a bit cyclonic. Apart from coolness it tends to be dry, normally dominant NW often missing with significant periods of light winds. It's an ill wind....etc

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Sun 12/12/2004 23:52

RWood wrote:SW anomaly is not so bad for us...even when a bit cyclonic. Apart from coolness it tends to be dry, normally dominant NW often missing with significant periods of light winds. It's an ill wind....etc

Pretty bad in the Waikato, a very cool December has seen the fruit market plummet and prices are already rising. Strawberry farms up here are only working at 1/3, and are unable to ship orders to Hong Kong.
Incidently, they need 20c to thrive.

Manukau heads obs · Mon 13/12/2004 08:28

yes, only 14.6oC average temperature so far for december here, and for the same period last year, it was 20oC average (using the average over time span ability built into weather display) (but 17.5oC for the whole of december)

C-Nimbus · Unread post by **C-Nimbus** » Mon 13/12/2004 10:55

That trough over Northalnd this morning looks to be getting there.

Metservice have a low confidence rating for T/S up there today. Rain radars seem to suggest some good activity.

Wednesday/thurday for us JAFA's apparently.

i'd say Michael must be loving this SW dominated weather.....he was right all along aye!

ricky · Unread post by **ricky** » Mon 13/12/2004 13:02

there was a nice little thunderstorm moved across kape reinga between about 7 and 8 this morning.. lots of lightning showing up on the tracker here..

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Mon 13/12/2004 14:08

Could end up one of the coldest Decembers in recent memory if this pattern continues. What with freezing levels in central North Island at about 1500m and snow to 700-800m in far south for about 3 days in a row - not usual for this time of year. But it'll most probably get warmer (even if not warmer than normal) towards the end of the month.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Mon 13/12/2004 15:50

tich wrote: But it'll most probably get warmer (even if not warmer than normal) towards the end of the month.

Yes, that's when I think the anticyclones will start kicking in

JohnGaul
NZTS

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Mon 13/12/2004 17:14

SW anomaly is not so bad for us...even when a bit cyclonic. Apart from coolness it tends to be dry, normally dominant NW often missing with significant periods of light winds. It's an ill wind....etc

Seems like Wellington is rather sheltered during straight southwesterly flows (remember late May/early June 2002?), but as soon as the flow swings a bit more southerly...

(that's what's called a 'critical' southwesterly - Canterbury is also affected by these minor changes in flow direction)

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Mon 13/12/2004 19:21

Yes I remember that a vortex of lows stayed put of 948hpa or lowere off the chathams

tich wrote:
SW anomaly is not so bad for us...even when a bit cyclonic. Apart from coolness it tends to be dry, normally dominant NW often missing with significant periods of light winds. It's an ill wind....etc
Seems like Wellington is rather sheltered during straight southwesterly flows (remember late May/early June 2002?), but as soon as the flow swings a bit more southerly... (that's what's called a 'critical' southwesterly - Canterbury is also affected by these minor changes in flow direction)

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Mon 13/12/2004 20:18

[/quote]

Seems like Wellington is rather sheltered during straight southwesterly flows (remember late May/early June 2002?), but as soon as the flow swings a bit more southerly...

(that's what's called a 'critical' southwesterly - Canterbury is also affected by these minor changes in flow direction)[/quote]

Just so - though I actually prefer the briefish periods when the wind is trying to blow from about WSW here. Milder than SW, still low speeds, usually sunny and very clear fresh air esp. after frontal passage.

Months with an anomaly in SE quadrant are usually most unpleasant here (haven't had all that many in recent years!). On the opposite compass side to SW, an anticyclonic ENE or thereabouts is relative heaven - warm, dry and sunny like March 2003.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Mon 13/12/2004 21:24

SE in Auckland are good unless its the SE from the small circle of a low.Most places always gets two"gales" ie Auckland a NE and the infamous SW, the lower NI a W or SE.Or Wgtn a NW or S.

RWood wrote:

Months with an anomaly in SE quadrant are usually most unpleasant here (haven't had all that many in recent years!). On the opposite compass side to SW, an anticyclonic ENE or thereabouts is relative heaven - warm, dry and sunny like March 2003.[/quote]

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Mon 13/12/2004 22:09

Yes, southeasterlies here are heavenly... too rare for my liking
Northeasterlies are also nice, warm and breezy.

I don't wish to boast... we're gale free

Sou'wester or westerly sometimes rise to near gale which causes damage

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Tue 14/12/2004 06:55

Foggy Hamilton wrote:Yes, southeasterlies here are heavenly... too rare for my liking
Northeasterlies are also nice, warm and breezy.

I don't wish to boast... we're gale free

Sou'wester or westerly sometimes rise to near gale which causes damage

Too true, but fogfree would be even better - consider Taumaranui eg with its big frequency of fogs and abysmal winter sun hrs - but very little wind!!

I lived in Invercargill for about 10 yrs or so in 50s and early 60s - SW was horrible, W often unpleasant and very strong. But N & NE if not cyclonic could be very nice indeed, because of overland effects.

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Tue 14/12/2004 11:13

At this stage, I reckon Auckland could have storms Thursday morning and into early afternoon as a upper cold pool passes over. The upper seems relatively dry so watch for hail. Surface temps don't seem overly good due to low cloud cover I'm thinking so maybe if anything happens it won't be severe, but then again shear could help updrafts as it looks pretty good.

Bahh!

But yeah, storms on Thursday could be on the cards for the NI.