UK Weather - Autumn 2013

[Simon Culling]

Bit short of time this evening, but the storm did produce 70-80mph gusts inland in a swath from Somerset eastwards through the northern Home Counties (incl. London) and into Essex with consequent damage and fatalities.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-24699748

Attached map (copyright of the Met Office) shows the situation at 1200GMT today (Monday) when the storm was battering the Netherlands and Denmark with 90-100mph winds. The UK missed these by about 250 miles and 3-4 hours of development of the low. Its all about timing in these situations and we got lucky.

[Simon Culling]

The depression (it has been named the 'St Judes Storm') was still deepening as it passed over southern England but did show some of the characteristics of a sting jet. The strongest winds were just behind the cold frontal wrap around at the back edge of the system and they ran across a distinct swathe of inland southern England. Highest gusts at inland stations in this region were:

80mph at Andrewsfield Aerodrome (Essex)
78mph at RAF Odiham (Hampshire)
76mph at RAF Wattisham (Suffolk)
75mph at RAF Lyneham (Wiltshire) + RAF Yeovilton (Somerset)

A gust of 99mph was recorded at the Needles Old Battery on the Isle of Wight, but this is a very exposed coastal site. This would also apply to the 98mph gust reported at Portland Harbour which is just to the west of the IOW.

The Sandettie Light Vessel in the middle of the Dover Strait reported a mean windspeed of 63kts (72mph) with a gust to 91kts (105mph) at its 0700GMT observation.

[Simon Culling]

The storm intensified as it departed the UK reaching around 965mb near Denmark with hurricane force winds reported from countries bordering the southern North Sea. Highest gusts reported, by country were:

Denmark 121mph at Kegnaes Fyr (Als Island)
Germany 107mph at St Peter Ording (Nord Friesland)
Netherlands 94mph at Vlieland (Friesland)
Sweden 94mph at Hallands Vadero

The Wikipedia report on the storm is generally accurate:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St_Jude_storm

[Simon Culling]

It has remained unsettled with further windy days and plenty of rain and it has generally turned cooler, with frost at night becoming a feature for more northern areas.

CET for October ended up at 12.5*C (+1.9*C) and the EWR was 159mm, which is 179% of the average.

CET for November is 8.6*C (+0.1*C) up to the 4th and the EWR is already 21mm up to the 3rd. Average for the month is 92mm.

[Simon Culling]

It has been frosty in the northern half of the UK n the last week or so with some quite low temperatures. Minimums on the 5th November were:

-6.1*C at Tulloch Bridge
-5.3*C at Redesdale (Northumberland)
-4.9*C at Loch Glascarnoch
-3.9*C at Topcliffe (N Yorks)

Here in Milton Keynes we have had a couple of ground frosts, but the lowest air temperature has been around 2-3*C. No need to scrape the ice off the car yet. The usual suspects are predicting a harsh winter, but my take is for a near average one temperature wise, but a bit on the wet side.

[Simon Culling]

The cool and unsettled weather has continued with plenty of rain, but some nice sunny autumnal days in-between. The CET for November is at 7.8*C (-0.1*C) up to the 9th and the EWR is on 42mm (45% of monthly average) up to the 8th. Forecast for the week ahead is for more of the same, although the models are flirting with a big mid Atlantic high pressure block from about the 16/17th which will bring much colder (and drier) weather. However, that is a long way off in forecasting terms.

We had the first visible frost of the autumn here in Milton Keynes on Saturday morning, although the air minimum was only 1-2*C. Further north there have been quite a few frosty nights, but we have kept more cloud here in the south and hence the milder nights. It was also cool yesterday (Saturday 9th) with a maximum of just 7*C amongst the rain and showers.

[Simon Culling]

It was a beautiful sunny day on Sunday (10th Nov) with a maximum temperature of 9*C. The attached photos are from a small village near MK called Passenham and the first one shows a modest stream in full flow. It has not burst its banks, but is running quite high and illustrates how wet it has been recently....indeed I should have been on the golf course that afternoon, but it was closed due to it being waterlogged. The leaves have turned to the usual autumn colours now and looked particularly beautiful in the mid-afternoon sunshine and hopefully we can have a week or to more to enjoy this annual spectacle. The strong winds of a couple of weeks ago thankfully did not strip the trees of their leaves.

[Orion]

Looks very green for the time of year
Lovely clear day.

[Simon Culling]

Hello Orion. Yes the grass has remained very green this autumn and this is a testament to the rainfall we have been experiencing since the end of September and the generally mild conditions.

CET for November is 7.5*C (+0.1*C) up to the 17th and the EWR is 59mm up to the 16th (64% of monthly average). The average temperature will fall over the next week or so as it cools off.

It has been turning cooler today and we will be in polar maritime air tomorrow with a few sleet showers possible and a frost into Wednesday. However, a low is set to move SSE from Greenland down the North Sea into Europe on Wednesday (20th Nov) and this will give us a cold wet day and introduce more of a NE flow. As the continent is not yet very cold, this will mean a cloudy, windy, damp and chilly few days here in the south.

[Simon Culling]

The cooler weather has continued although it is now turning quieter as high pressure to the west exerts its influence. A sharp cold front moved south across England on Wednesday (20th Nov) morning giving a sharp squall and hail to many areas and even a little sleet and wet snow on its back edge. A number of wind damage events have been reported and I carried out a couple of SI's today that suggest at least two small tornadoes. One occurred only 1km from where I work!

Before the front arrived the Tues/Weds night brought the first widespread sharp frost of the autumn to the southern half of England with minimum temperatures recorded at:

-6.5*C at RAF Benson (Oxon)
-4.7*C at South Farnborough (Hampshire)
-4.2*C at Charlwood (Surrey)
-3.8*C at Shoreham (on the coast of W Sussex) + Winchcombe Sudeley Castle (Gloucs)

[Simon Culling]

CET for November was 6.6*C (on average) up to the 29th and the EWR was 77mm (83% of average). The rainfall figures disguise a very wet start to the month but an almost dry second half when things were dominated by high pressure near the UK. It was rather cool in the second half but remained mostly cloudy here in Milton Keynes and we recorded only two air frosts in the entire month.

We look to be getting a blast of arctic air later this week (from Wednesday onwards) with some snow showers to coastal regions and possibly inland as more organised troughs move southwards in the general flow. After that it looks like high pressure will reassert itself shutting out the Atlantic lows. The only problem with this is that it will likely be dull and cloudy......and very boring weatherwise!

[Richard]

So does winter high pressure normally bring dull and cloudy weather Simon?,here its mostly fine frosty weather though anticyclonic gloom still does happen a bit but less so for me been inland.

[Simon Culling]

Richard, the high pressure over the last week or two has been to the west of the UK and therefore quite often the fetch of winds on its northern edge have been from across the Atlantic and curving south over the UK. This will bring a lot of moisture with it but not the normal warmth you might expect......the N Atlantic is much cooler. If the high pressure had been much closer to or over the UK we would have had a better chance of sunny weather. However, for those of us who live away from the coasts, under this pressure pattern fog will often form in the long winter nights and not clear during the day due to the subsidence inversion and low levels of incoming radiation. It will stay dull and cold in this circumstance.

That said, we do get cloud free anticyclones in the winter and they can provide fantastic clear sunny days and frosty nights. The sun lit frost can be very photogenic. We had such a spell in January 2012 from the 13th to the 16th which gave four sunny days (max temps 4-5*C) and plenty of frost overnight (mins of -4 to -6*C)...and no fog! The wind was between north and east, so the high pressure must have been to the north.

[Simon Culling]

The final CET for November was 6.2*C (-0.4*C) breaking a run of four warmer than average months. The EWR totalled 79mm which is 85% of the average....yet another drier than average month for 2013.

Autumn as a whole (Sept to Nov in the Northern Hemisphere!) was slightly warmer, drier and duller than average, but were talking very small deviations from the average.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/ ... 013/autumn