Blowy wrote: Thu 08/03/2018 11:10
Yep. They got 50mm in the area a couple days ago, flooding already. We got 60mm overnight in Havelock North, still going, ground here was bloody dry so a lot of run off.
Hmm no wonder the Napier Taupo road is closed be a hell of a mess up there. I reckon the timeframe would be 24hours or less as Napier was largely dry during yesterday, could even be a 12 hour reading?
We're getting very persistent heavy rain here now, it certainly has ramped up over the last couple of hours. The radar and satellite imagery suggest we're under some sort of convergence zone running SE to NW just N of Palmy. I checked out the Manawatu River late this morning and it's rising quickly, but I was also surprised at how turbid it is. Presumably the extreme rainfalls over Hawke's Bay way are also affecting the upper Manawatu catchment.
It's still chucking down here. From the radar this rain band seems to be continuously renewing itself just east of the Manawatu Gorge area before heading over the ranges towards the NW. It looks as though we're getting convergence, instability and orographic forcing all at once. There's still quite a bit of moisture feeding into it from the east too. It'll be interesting to see if all this rainfall affects the slope instability in the Gorge over the coming days & weeks.
harleyb wrote: Thu 08/03/2018 14:54
It's still chucking down here. From the radar this rain band seems to be continuously renewing itself just east of the Manawatu Gorge area before heading over the ranges towards the NW. It looks as though we're getting convergence, instability and orographic forcing all at once. There's still quite a bit of moisture feeding into it from the east too. It'll be interesting to see if all this rainfall affects the slope instability in the Gorge over the coming days & weeks.
We're getting very persistent heavy rain here now, it certainly has ramped up over the last couple of hours. The radar and satellite imagery suggest we're under some sort of convergence zone running SE to NW just N of Palmy. I checked out the Manawatu River late this morning and it's rising quickly, but I was also surprised at how turbid it is. Presumably the extreme rainfalls over Hawke's Bay way are also affecting the upper Manawatu catchment.
Any chance it got renamed with a "P" today? In all seriousness hope everyone has dry feet up there
harleyb wrote: Thu 08/03/2018 14:54
It's still chucking down here. From the radar this rain band seems to be continuously renewing itself just east of the Manawatu Gorge area before heading over the ranges towards the NW. It looks as though we're getting convergence, instability and orographic forcing all at once. There's still quite a bit of moisture feeding into it from the east too. It'll be interesting to see if all this rainfall affects the slope instability in the Gorge over the coming days & weeks.
Is there surface flooding happening?
Not that I know of, but it wouldn't surprise me. The river levels around here are shooting up. It's been persisting down here since late morning. The radar makes it look reasonably localised though, it's still going heavily here but looking as though it will ease off from the south soon. We've also got a SE gale here with the heavy rain (local downslope winds at the base of the ranges).
Thunder081 wrote: Thu 08/03/2018 17:27
I had a look at the Manawatu river near Ashurst and it is high here's a video
And its blowing a se gale in exposed parts
I went down tonight for another look and it's eroding the true right bank now whilst still rising. However the upper Gorge is only forecast to peak at 8.2 m, more or less. (Cyclone Debbie last year sent down a peak of over 11 m at the upper Gorge and that caused huge damage to the Ashhurst Domain -- we lost over 50 metres of the true right bank in that single event, quite incredible.) SE gale still rolling through here but it's easing off now, so I think the show's over for us.
Thunder081 wrote: Thu 08/03/2018 17:27
I had a look at the Manawatu river near Ashurst and it is high here's a video
And its blowing a se gale in exposed parts
I went down tonight for another look and it's eroding the true right bank now whilst still rising. However the upper Gorge is only forecast to peak at 8.2 m, more or less. (Cyclone Debbie last year sent down a peak of over 11 m at the upper Gorge and that caused huge damage to the Ashhurst Domain -- we lost over 50 metres of the true right bank in that single event, quite incredible.) SE gale still rolling through here but it's easing off now, so I think the show's over for us.
Wow that's a lot of erosion. The downslope winds are very interesting too in Levin there wasn't much wind nothing compared to what I encountered just before shannon it was kind of hard to drive the wind gusts at times were blowing my car to the left.
This tree was also blown over at the Manawatu river near Ashurst
DSCF6954-r.jpg
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
