Cyclone Tracy wrote: Mon 14/05/2018 12:50
12z run EC, New GFS and CFS are picking up a polar vortex super pulse in the 8 to 10 day zone. -35 to -40c at 500 hPa over the SI. Starting to become quite interesting ....
Cyclone Tracy wrote: Mon 14/05/2018 12:50
12z run EC, New GFS and CFS are picking up a polar vortex super pulse in the 8 to 10 day zone. -35 to -40c at 500 hPa over the SI. Starting to become quite interesting ....
-6C at 850hpa would certainly produce sleet at sea level but its just so far out its hardly worth mentioning, you see this all the time in the long range forecasts...
Some lightning flickering away to distant SW last hour. Mostly IC as the Blitzortung is not picking that much up. Quite a line of cb there before it got dark.
Cyclone Tracy wrote: Mon 14/05/2018 12:50
12z run EC, New GFS and CFS are picking up a polar vortex super pulse in the 8 to 10 day zone. -35 to -40c at 500 hPa over the SI. Starting to become quite interesting ....
-6C at 850hpa would certainly produce sleet at sea level but its just so far out its hardly worth mentioning, you see this all the time in the long range forecasts...
Fair enough, sorry I mentioned it and my apologies for giving this input into the General May weather topic.
Cyclone Tracy wrote: Mon 14/05/2018 12:50
12z run EC, New GFS and CFS are picking up a polar vortex super pulse in the 8 to 10 day zone. -35 to -40c at 500 hPa over the SI. Starting to become quite interesting ....
-6C at 850hpa would certainly produce sleet at sea level but its just so far out its hardly worth mentioning, you see this all the time in the long range forecasts...
A little harsh I think, Bradley. CT didnt mention 850hpa temps; what he did mention was certainly worth mentioning and I for one value opinions like this being expressed by all the contributors to our forum; and, if I see -6 at 850hp then the potential consequences are certainly worth mentioning to my clients even if it is well in the future. Looks like a good coating of snow for the South Island ranges coming up. Pretty decent in fact.
-6C at 850hpa would certainly produce sleet at sea level but its just so far out its hardly worth mentioning, you see this all the time in the long range forecasts...
A little harsh I think, Bradley. CT didnt mention 850hpa temps; what he did mention was certainly worth mentioning and I for one value opinions like this being expressed by all the contributors to our forum; and, if I see -6 at 850hp then the potential consequences are certainly worth mentioning to my clients even if it is well in the future. Looks like a good coating of snow for the South Island ranges coming up. Pretty decent in fact.
You’d mention a forecast 10 days out to your clients Tony? That surprises me massively but ok then
CT is right. ECMWF is onto it in their latest model output.
Even though I don't understand CT's jargon on postings, the infornation that comes out is useful and should benefit users on this forum.
There is a higher chance of cold air reaching NZ next couple of weeks, high pressure in the Australian Bight, a disturbed west/southwest flow is classic for pulling up wintry air this time of year, something to watch next couple of weeks.
CT input into this weather forum is invaluable, ive learnt so much over the years. I find it very interesting im still trying to get my head around the whole vortex thing and warming in Antarctica if anyone would like to explain in detail about it and how its going to make this winter alot colder for NZ id love to know more. Yes i could google it, but if anyone cares to share more knowledge about it id be grateful. Watching this cold southerly with interest , Thanks
Yes please Cyclone Tracy, keep your input coming mate its so refreshing when the clickbait stuff elsewhere so often goes loco. Your considered analysis is among the best we get to read here.
And no offence intended to Bradley either, I do get where you are coming from.
A little harsh I think, Bradley. CT didnt mention 850hpa temps; what he did mention was certainly worth mentioning and I for one value opinions like this being expressed by all the contributors to our forum; and, if I see -6 at 850hp then the potential consequences are certainly worth mentioning to my clients even if it is well in the future. Looks like a good coating of snow for the South Island ranges coming up. Pretty decent in fact.
You’d mention a forecast 10 days out to your clients Tony? That surprises me massively but ok then
Well, I wouldn't want to be predictable now would I? Oh, hold on.
I see the BOP council rainguage at Whakatane Airport recorded 43mm in the hour to 4am this morning and 66mm in 3 hours. Some very localised convection there.
Looking too far ahead or not, next week does seem to be shaping up to be stormy for most of NZ. Example model guidance for mid next week below, showing for Wed one of several significant features that may come from the west (currently hinting at Sun, Tue and Wed being the most interesting days). Is this how an Antarctic SSW usually plays out? I don't know -- CT feel free to explain how that all works.
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