General August Weather

[Cyclone Tracy]

Am I missing something or does NOAA on the attached link forecast warmer then average SST anamolies tight into next year, not cooler SST?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... e3Sea.html

It does, but by the look of that DJF map which has warm just about everywhere, I wouldn't trust it. And usually dont.

just to add, ECMWF monthly SST outlook is also much cooler than NOAA's. Will be interesting to see the next ECMWF monthly outlook in 5 days time.

[Thunder081]

A nice sunset the other day in the Horowhenua

DSCF7510-r.jpg

[melja]

Couple mill's rain from spill over in Rangiora.

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[SnwAddct]

Rather quiet for southern lakes resorts for this time of year. Heading down for a holiday in 2 weeks and was hoping to see a decent burst of fresh snow by now..

[tunster]

Just passed 18c for the 2nd day in a row on my PWS. First sequence since 21st / 22nd May

Negative SAM thrashing SE OZ with winds over the past couple of weeks with bigger winds and low snowfall to come this weekend and next week.

Continued low term signals of a very unstable equinox period around NZ. Been watching this daily for the last week, waiting for the signals to calm down but they are still strong across many platforms and theories. Vigorous and unstable equinoctial gales could be common this spring. Here are some examples at the moment derived from NOAA data.

I like the general idea he's come up with. It will be a struggle in the Southern Hemisphere more so than the NH.
I do wonder if he can explain his work in layman's terms though. Probably trying to read his journal on night shift was a bad idea but it's written in post-grad terminology which renders it out of reach for many people (I mean *real* understanding of what he's doing).
Another thing I couldn't work out is why, of all fields, he's producing Lifted Index? That strikes me as a very strange field to be interested in at very long range - not only is it not particularly useful or interesting in isolation but it has so many dependencies that it has a higher chance of being wrong than simpler fields like GH.

[TonyT]

Just passed 18c for the 2nd day in a row on my PWS. First sequence since 21st / 22nd May

Negative SAM thrashing SE OZ with winds over the past couple of weeks with bigger winds and low snowfall to come this weekend and next week.

Continued low term signals of a very unstable equinox period around NZ. Been watching this daily for the last week, waiting for the signals to calm down but they are still strong across many platforms and theories. Vigorous and unstable equinoctial gales could be common this spring. Here are some examples at the moment derived from NOAA data.

I like the general idea he's come up with. It will be a struggle in the Southern Hemisphere more so than the NH.
I do wonder if he can explain his work in layman's terms though. Probably trying to read his journal on night shift was a bad idea but it's written in post-grad terminology which renders it out of reach for many people (I mean *real* understanding of what he's doing).
Another thing I couldn't work out is why, of all fields, he's producing Lifted Index? That strikes me as a very strange field to be interested in at very long range - not only is it not particularly useful or interesting in isolation but it has so many dependencies that it has a higher chance of being wrong than simpler fields like GH.

Strangely worded post for this forum Tunster, almost sounds like you intended this to be an email to one of your colleagues in MS? Nice to know MS takes such a keen interest in the views expressed on our little forum.

[Cyclone Tracy]

@Tunster, I don’t think your message was for me but all good. I used the LI index as a trend example as we head closer to the warm season convection cycle, obviously it can’t be taken serious this far out but the instability has remained on the trend over an extended period of time (Daily for 2 weeks) around the equinox.


8mm overnight here, best drop for a couple of weeks. Sun out, grass is starting to grow again.

[David]

8mm overnight here, best drop for a couple of weeks. Sun out, grass is starting to grow again.

I also noticed there been a lack of substantial rainfalls the last few weeks - just small totals all the time

[David]

Our flowering cherries are at peak blossom right now. I've seen up to 8 tui in the trees at the same time today. Here's a photo of one

[Chris W]

@Tunster, I don’t think your message was for me but all good. I used the LI index as a trend example as we head closer to the warm season convection cycle, obviously it can’t be taken serious this far out but the instability has remained on the trend over an extended period of time (Daily for 2 weeks) around the equinox.


8mm overnight here, best drop for a couple of weeks. Sun out, grass is starting to grow again.

NIWA were tweeting today about a colder end to August from about the 18th-20th. GFS and EC both currently going for something very cold and windy around then, still very far out at this stage for details or even a complete change however it does look like a colder pattern may be on the way.

[Richard]

I don't know about that, the last few months all the models have not been closely accurate past 5 days out

[Chris W]

As I said a complete change is possible, as ever with models, but in this case NIWA called the westerlies we have been having to start August and they are on board with a colder change.

[Cyclone Tracy]

The American ensemble GEFS is going off the charts over Antarctica in 10 days time. It's continued to project another and larger sudden stratospheric warming event over the pole than what happened in the May occurrence. Near 30c warming anomaly in the upper stratosphere which starts mixing downward by the end of August. The signals of a wild and turbulent Spring continue be enhanced

[Richard]

Gees the popcorn's going to get a hiding over the next month CT

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Rather quiet for southern lakes resorts for this time of year. Heading down for a holiday in 2 weeks and was hoping to see a decent burst of fresh snow by now..

There was an article on TV One news tonight about a local ski field which is remaining open despite the lack of snow. There hasn't been much snow around. The local peaks just showing a covering around the tops.
I noticed last WE that Lake Pukaki was low judging by the shoreline marks around it's shore.

[Richard]

Noticed this winter the Mt Oxford didnt have its normal winter snow cap

[Dean.]

Rather quiet for southern lakes resorts for this time of year. Heading down for a holiday in 2 weeks and was hoping to see a decent burst of fresh snow by now..

There was an article on TV One news tonight about a local ski field which is remaining open despite the lack of snow. There hasn't been much snow around. The local peaks just showing a covering around the tops.
I noticed last WE that Lake Pukaki was low judging by the shoreline marks around it's shore.

Fox Peak quite a low elevation though at 1360 metres

[spwill]

Snowy Mnts having a bumper season
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/bump ... ues/528296

[snowstormwatcher]

There was an article on TV One news tonight about a local ski field which is remaining open despite the lack of snow. There hasn't been much snow around. The local peaks just showing a covering around the tops.
I noticed last WE that Lake Pukaki was low judging by the shoreline marks around it's shore.

Fox Peak quite a low elevation though at 1360 metres

Yes Fox peak is often hit and miss due to low elevation but even mt Dobson at 1700m doesn't have much snow, need a east/southeast event for good snow on these ski fields which is something we haven't had this winter..

[Dean.]

Yes snowline on Mt Hutt creeping up everyday...will be a short season unless a natural snowfall happens soon...was a very warm day inland today at Mt Somers away from the northeaster

[Bradley]

Some cold air collision with a low pressure system being forecast by EC for Sunday/Monday next week, could result in some good snowfall for the Canterbury plains with 10-20cm down to 200m asl and lesser amounts down to 100m asl, so far out though especially with the positioning of the low pressure system but definately one to watch, might even get out some of CT's popcorn during the week

[mikestormchaser]

Was looking at the models this morning. Looks like north Canterbury could get a storm tomorrow? Looked to be a convergence and instability around there mid afternoon with a S change

[Richard]

might even get out some of CT's popcorn during the week

Dont you run CT short.

[melja]

No instability in North Canterbury today

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[melja]

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