General October Weather

[BeaconHill]

Tuesday in Wellington was a stunning day with light northerly until late in the afternoon when a light southerly rolled thru. Towards dusk the wind turned more SE and the low cloud rolling down over the hills to the east of Wellington caught the attention of many based on the pics I have seen on various social media sites.

I managed to capture a short Timelapse just on dusk of the cloud rolling over and down the side of the hill like a waterfall. Had to precariously prop my phone on a wall, hence a few wobbles from the light breeze!

https://youtu.be/xPjvjRWbBlo?feature=shared

[Storm Struck]

I'm thinking CHCH won't see more than about 15 to 20mm with sheltering.

Yes great day here today, 28 degrees with a very mild night on the way.

Indeed generally that would be the case, but the surface models have been hinting at for some days now a secondary low forming east of Banks Peninsula.
This is during the morning which would aid in widespread rain development.

[Simon Culling]

NIWA tweet with the highs for Wednesday. These sorts of values would be very close to record breaking for the equivalent time in Spring here in the UK, i.e. mid-late April. Table copied from this tweet:

https://x.com/NiwaWeather/status/1848923659664232762

Orari is just down thr road to you John (at Geraldine).

[JP.]

I heard on the TV one news tonight that the October record for Christchurch is 30c.

Unsure what year that was although high 20s I feel happen at least every year around October in Christchurch.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Orari is just down the road to you John (at Geraldine).

Yes, about 8kms to the east from here. I think I know where the AWS is.
....anyway it was a bit cooler here with 27.1C being today's high. A partly cloudy day with light variable winds with cloud thickening this afternoon.
Calm and mild evening.

[Kobi]

good spring day here today, didnt quite get to 28C at my house in eastern christchurch, slightly cooler at 27C but still quite warm for the time of year nonetheless

[Nev]

I heard on the TV one news tonight that the October record for Christchurch is 30c.

Unsure what year that was although high 20s I feel happen at least every year around October in Christchurch.

Highest October temp ever recorded at Chch Aero was 30.1C in 1980 since records began in 1953.

Yesterday's 28.4C was its 5th highest October temp, and one of only 12 years it has recorded over 27.0C in October.

[harleyb]

A nice warm afternoon in the Wairarapa yesterday as well which was perfect for a bit of field work. Took this pic of rotor clouds lined up under waves in the lee of the Tararuas near Masterton on our way back. Should have stopped to do a time lapse but didn't have a tripod, I should always take one!

20241023_170942.jpg

[Orion]

I hope the Winchester one is cancelled as well.
...

A heavy rain forecast for Saturday in South Canterbury has forced the postponement of the first event of the 2024 NZ rodeo season.

Winchester Rodeo Club president Grant Kelynack confirmed that the show, set down for Saturday, would instead run on November 3 as the forecast rain posed a safety issue.

The change in the weather has been predicted from early Thursday and is expected to make Labour Weekend damp and chilly in many places. The Methven Rodeo on Sunday has also been cancelled due to the poor forecast.
MetService issued a yellow wind watch for the Canterbury high country from 6am on Thursday until 2am Friday, and there is also an orange heavy rain warning for the headwaters of Canterbury lakes and rivers about, and south, of Arthur’s Pass.
...

https://www.thepress.co.nz/nz-news/3604 ... n-forecast

[TonyT]

NIWA tweet with the highs for Wednesday. These sorts of values would be very close to record breaking for the equivalent time in Spring here in the UK, i.e. mid-late April. Table copied from this tweet:

https://x.com/NiwaWeather/status/1848923659664232762

Orari is just down thr road to you John (at Geraldine).

You don't get the same level of enhanced heating under Fohn wind conditions in the UK that we see here in Canterbury.

[spwill]

NIWA tweet with the highs for Wednesday. These sorts of values would be very close to record breaking for the equivalent time in Spring here in the UK, i.e. mid-late April. Table copied from this tweet:

https://x.com/NiwaWeather/status/1848923659664232762

Orari is just down thr road to you John (at Geraldine).

You don't get the same level of enhanced heating under Fohn wind conditions in the UK that we see here in Canterbury.

Latitude is a factor as well, Chch on par with southern France. What you do tend to get over England during the warmer weather is higher due point temperatures compared to much of the South Island but this is more likely in Summer.

The thunder risk here on Saturday is low.

[Orion]

NW cloud lowering here, becoming duller; 22.7°C now; 37% humidity; 999.8hPa.
Breeze strengthening to 'fresh'.
None of the predicted northerly rain, yet.

[Razor]

Heading for the West Coast this weekend. Upgraded from camping to Cabins several days ago. Will be packing the board games!

[Orion]

Light rain landing on west-facing windows now. And faint sun shining through.

22.2°C, humidity 41%, 999.5hPa.

[Simon Culling]

Good points, Tony T and spwill. The fohn effect in the UK tends to be localised and is most common in western + northern Wales (depending on wind direction) and eastern Scotland. However, the largest impacts tend to be in western Scotland when the wind is from the east and particularly so in the Spring. The highest temperatures in the UK from late spring to early Autumn generally come with air imported from well to the south of us.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Another rather warmish north to NW day with quite cloudy conditions and a mild wind blowing from the northerly quarter. Overthrow rain showers along the foothills but nothing much coming out over the plains.however, a few overthrow spits this afternoon and this evening resulting in to today's rainfall total of AFD which I use as being less that a trace which I know that precipitation has fallen for my records.
25.2C the maximum for today after a rather mild night with the temperature only lowering to 15,2C.

[JP.]

Christchurch had a very warm night with the temp dipping to the low of 17.5c at 11pm before the westerly arrived and it stayed above 20c from 1am all the way through to sunrise at 6:21am. Preparing for a wet long weekend though.

[TonyT]

Preparing for a wet long weekend though.

Only tomorrow looks miserably wet. Sunday dry, afternoon showers/thunderstorms for Monday with some convection possible.

[mikestormchaser]

Preparing for a wet long weekend though.

Only tomorrow looks miserably wet. Sunday dry, afternoon showers/thunderstorms for Monday with some convection possible.

Interesting i had my eye on Tuesday than Monday but hoping it is Monday being a holiday day.

[Orion]

Currently: 20.5°C, 42% humidity, 1005.6hPa.

A bit more high cloud around than first thing; still sunny; moderate easterly.

[mikestormchaser]

ECMWF hints for storms on Monday but GFS doesn't want much to do with it. I generally go with GFS when it comes to thunderstorms but it's all worth to keep eye on.

GFS has Tuesday more suitable for eastern SI.
Both days worth a watch
I'd hope Monday is a storm day, as I say being a day off. Perfect to chase.

[Storm Struck]

Unsure what the overnight highest temperature is for October? But we must have been reasonably close with 21C by 6am.

Surprised there's no heavy rain watch or warning for the Canterbury plains from MS, still some very healthy totals there.
More or so considering the rainfall rate tomorrow morning and on top of very dry surface soils. Will be quite abit of storm water run off.

Still remaining reasonably warm with a SE wind and cloud starting to increase on 23C.

[darcyplumb]

Unsure what the overnight highest temperature is for October? But we must have been reasonably close with 21C by 6am.

Surprised there's no heavy rain watch or warning for the Canterbury plains from MS, still some very healthy totals there.
More or so considering the rainfall rate tomorrow morning and on top of very dry surface soils. Will be quite abit of storm water run off.

Still remaining reasonably warm with a SE wind and cloud starting to increase on 23C.

I agree. Quite surprised to not have a watch at the very least. I would think a cautious approach would be wise at the moment with the radar being out of action.

[Razor]

Still trying to decide whether to travel via Arthur's or Lewis pass tomorrow. The MS snow warning seems to apply south of the Rangitata yet the Road Snow Warnings say 20-40cm in Porters and Arthur's. Will see what the morning brings and decide then guess

[Dean.]

Yes suprised there is not a severe weather watch for rainfall for the plains as well.
A watch out for the Dunedin area with 38mm showing on the EC ensemble.Ashburton 65mm.