Large ECL and possible mini cyclone for east coast aussie!

Matt Townsend · Unread post by **Matt Townsend** » Sat 13/05/2006 14:37

i looking thru the models and.... far out!

http://www.bellingen.com/weather/photos ... %20May.png {changed to URL by moderator}

i not sure that would happen and the eye would be opening like that!

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Sat 13/05/2006 14:40

Lucky people in Perth

janewaystv · Unread post by **janewaystv** » Sat 13/05/2006 14:43

Will that mean wonderful and fabby rain for Sydney?? I am telling that horrible sun to go away and let us have the rains...........

Matt Townsend · Unread post by **Matt Townsend** » Sat 13/05/2006 15:14

Looking very unstable weather for ECA (east coast australia) in couple next days: https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... z&prod=prp

The models still have a low pressure system off the coast here but:

"An upper low will move into Qld on Monday and then move eastwards. This upper
low will most likely pass off the southern coast late in the week. As the low
moves eastwards it will destablize conditions so that from about Tuesday onwards
showers should become more scattered along the southern and central coasts and
penetrate into the adjacent inland. As well, this low will induce a trough off
the southern coast. This will result in strong winds developing along the
southern coast and cause seas to rise to rough."
By QLD BOM.

I am sure that low pressure would swing our weather to worsen as the winds could reach 100km/hr and flash flooding during this event. I am very exciting but scary

Matt Townsend · Unread post by **Matt Townsend** » Sat 13/05/2006 15:27

And the WXmaps site said:

http://wxmaps.org/pix/spacpot.png {changed to URL by moderator}

Look like a category 2-3 cyclone@!

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Sat 13/05/2006 15:29

It's a very long way out.. but models tending this low will shift into the northern-central Tasman Sea and track southeast towards the North Island giving more significant rain for Northland.

NSW situation looking bad.. roll on this 1030hPa high.. to give NSW some sort of easterly flow to get things going. And dry us out!

Matt Townsend · Unread post by **Matt Townsend** » Sat 13/05/2006 19:32

I have looked through the GFS models and i surprised that showed large area of low pressure cell in the drought areas at S QLD, NSW, E SA and VIC! I comfirmed that would be very strong this time as it could bring large area of floods and gales.

First seven days GFS showed a good onshore showers along QLD and N NSW coasts between Monday and the event develops. I could see the low pressure would be SW of Perth atm that is attacking SA on later next week if possibility to see some changes that would be much earlier to hit.

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/charts/tw ... lp&hour=-1

Seven days after that on GFS extended forecasts showed a large area of low pressure cell would be turning into a large weather front, which be good for farmers and crops across the centre of Australia. At this point, the first low pressure would bring some squally winds across the SE states with highland snow and severe weather east of the Great Dividing Ranges, may little affect SE QLD. After the first low pressure hit, another low pressure starting to hit Perth and doing the same thing as the first one did!

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/charts/tw ... lp&hour=-1

Let hope this event up!!

Matt Townsend · Unread post by **Matt Townsend** » Sat 13/05/2006 22:33

I have more info, this link direct to GFS/COLA prediction and it shows that 4th week of May seems much alot of rainfalls here!

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/latest/gf ... _10day.png

It gotta slam like a boost nudge!

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Sun 14/05/2006 09:25

Matt Townsend wrote: 4th week of May seems much alot of rainfalls here! It gotta slam like a boost nudge!

A slam dunk perhaps?

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Sun 14/05/2006 18:11

models do show a deep low in the bight in a few days time but just will get flicked with the front tomorow(monday) hopefulls some storms with it otherwise back to fine boring weather again

Matt Townsend · Unread post by **Matt Townsend** » Sun 14/05/2006 19:03

Looking very excellent for EC Australia during this week and next week, by 7 days GFS showing that E NSW and SE QLD might see some heavy falls from scattering showers. Possible hail and coastal thunderstorms would be some good chance south of Brisbane which it right on edge of the cold pool. There is a possible low pressure system in Coral Sea which that having a low chance to form into a TC in next 5 days, anyway Perth is hitting from a cold front tomorrow by scattering thunderstorms. Next Sunday, a little far out, the upper trough in Central QLD triggering some afternoon/evening thunderstorms and it spreading out onto EC Australia on next week (not this week).
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/charts/tw ... lp&hour=-1

The upper trough from central QLD is forming into a deep low pressure trough, looking that would bring some squally winds with some severe thunderstorms across eastern states. At this point, they seems like a typical summer pattern in northern NSW area and south of it would see some highland snow areas.
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/charts/tw ... lp&hour=-1

Any comments?

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sun 14/05/2006 21:35

Naaaaaaaaaaaaa

All a fizzer.
Just a boring anticyclone of 1030+ over to persist,sadly.
More sun to NSW

JohnGaul
NZTS

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Mon 15/05/2006 14:29

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/charts/tw ... lp&hour=-1

GFS supports something forming in a weeks time overland on the NSW/QLD border

Matt Townsend · Unread post by **Matt Townsend** » Mon 15/05/2006 18:26

I think the whole event just started here!

Flash flooding and some wind squalls over 30knots here, i also got soaked!

Need more towels!

Matt Townsend · Unread post by **Matt Townsend** » Mon 15/05/2006 19:49

Okay guys here we come, definitly there going to be a true rain event on EC Australia comparing the ranges too. I have been looking thru the models and that GFS still predicting our true rain event or some thunderstorms.

Let start with first 7 days GFS; more coastal showers with some severe characteristics like here today with some flooding, wind gusts and small hail. It extending onto the rain event which is starting to fire on Sunday in central QLD and next Monday is our true rain event that is scorching over us with inland gales and flooding. I think there would be some isolated thunderstorms but mainly in the north due to low pressure centre, possibley severe.

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/charts/tw ... lp&hour=-1

So after next Monday, it likely to bring heavy rain and gales across the region and it could be lucky for Sydney and Brissie for their welcome rain! I compared that event would be more severe than last June as we getting NE winds on Monday starting with high temps during night times and occuring this would be very interesting that rain falls in May total would be over average.

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/charts/tw ... lp&hour=-1

Hopefully for great falls!

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Mon 15/05/2006 21:18

Youre probably getting our SW deflected as SE onto you

Matt Townsend wrote:I think the whole event just started here! Flash flooding and some wind squalls over 30knots here, i also got soaked!

Need more towels!

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Mon 15/05/2006 22:56

Dosen't look much coming up. Trough weak unless there is an active upper.Too anticyclonic.

JohnGaul
NZTS

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Tue 16/05/2006 18:46

GFS and GASP support a ecl in about 6 days time

Matt Townsend · Unread post by **Matt Townsend** » Wed 17/05/2006 19:12

The models still taking on this event which it would happen during next week, the affecting areas would see some damaging squalls and floods.

During the ending this week, the east coast Australia would see some scattering showers with cloudy weather until the next cool change develops. GFS shows that the low pressure system may form one day late from yesterday's update, it going to be here on Wednesday anyway.
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/charts/tw ... lp&hour=-1

On the extended GFS, it shows alot of moisture flow from NW of the country which would bring some great rainfalls across the interior. I presuming that our weather conditions would unsettle during this week as a approaching low pressure system. I concerned that there some severe winds and floods across the SE QLD and NE NSW and extending along southern NSW coast during next week.
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/charts/tw ... lp&hour=-1

Other forecast models show this event too! And it would be much more severe to my eyes.
http://www.metvuw.com/forecast/forecast ... n=seaussie

Hopefully this would come true and it good for some farmers!

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Wed 17/05/2006 22:10

Good luck for the storms. ??
It's like wishing thunderstorms would hit Christchurch instead of Hamilton/Auckland

What effect has this to do with New Zealand weather anyway?
This is a NZ weather forum, not an Aussie one?

JohnGaul
NZTS

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Thu 18/05/2006 11:10

Australia has a big effect on our weather,it causes our long term southwesterlies also cyclogenis and heat in summer in the east,if it wasnt there our weather probably be more predictable

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Thu 18/05/2006 13:31

it has everything to do with new zealand weather that is where new zealand gets most of its weather from models still going for this to happen

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Thu 18/05/2006 14:08

squid wrote:it has everything to do with new zealand weather that is where new zealand gets most of its weather from models still going for this to happen

lol he's only here cause he was banned somewhere else.. gets to vent here I guess?

ECMWF rapidly deepens the low in the central Tasman Sea which could see some rough weather on the cards for western Aotearoa. Or will this blocking high make a mockery out of it?

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Thu 18/05/2006 16:07

squid wrote:it has everything to do with new zealand weather that is where new zealand gets most of its weather from models still going for this to happen

Most of New Zealand's weather comes from south of Australia, very little from the continent itself.

Matt Townsend · Unread post by **Matt Townsend** » Thu 18/05/2006 19:21

Australia is very important to NZL because our weather is going towards you most of the time, as that low pressure system hit here so after that it will head towards NZL