Summer Outlook
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For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
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For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
- NZstorm
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Summer Outlook
Heard something on the radio today about NIWA forecasting "more of the same" for NZ. What we had in spring we will have for summer. Thats how NewstalkZB put it anyway.
My prediiction for the Auckland region.
I expect the weather to turn much drier after a wet spring. Sunshine will be above average while temps will be a little below normal.
My prediiction for the Auckland region.
I expect the weather to turn much drier after a wet spring. Sunshine will be above average while temps will be a little below normal.
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I'll have a go... constant southwesterlies for Southland from late January.. with a better than normal thunderstorm season over Canterbury/Otago... very dry over the upper North Island with possible wetter than normal conditions in Eastland. Warmer northerlies.. and an increase in them too.
Steven or anyone, what were the thunderstorms like in the summer of '97/'98? This summer could shape up quite the same as that one.
The SOI trends look quite the same at the start of that El Nino.. this one looks just a bit steeper with the standard SOI.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... /figt2.gif
Steven or anyone, what were the thunderstorms like in the summer of '97/'98? This summer could shape up quite the same as that one.
The SOI trends look quite the same at the start of that El Nino.. this one looks just a bit steeper with the standard SOI.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... /figt2.gif
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Foggy Hamilton wrote:I'll have a go... constant southwesterlies for Southland from late January.. with a better than normal thunderstorm season over Canterbury/Otago... very dry over the upper North Island with possible wetter than normal conditions in Eastland. Warmer northerlies.. and an increase in them too.
Steven or anyone, what were the thunderstorms like in the summer of '97/'98? This summer could shape up quite the same as that one.
The SOI trends look quite the same at the start of that El Nino.. this one looks just a bit steeper with the standard SOI.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... /figt2.gif
I'm going to copy this to see if you get it right.
Very mild at the moment with a northerly breeze.
- Storm Struck
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Was thinking along the same lines as Foggy I think storm season where there is usually more thunderstorms will possibly extend itself a week so usually it's 20th December-January 5th instead perhaps 20th December-15th January.
Best time is usually around xmas new years when there can be 4-5 days of thunder in a row but last year was a dud really .
Have heard thunder on 3 days so far this season not bad but here's hoping for some proper ones soon.
Small risk here tomorrow evening with the windchange at this stage but better further south.
Cheers
Jason.
Best time is usually around xmas new years when there can be 4-5 days of thunder in a row but last year was a dud really .
Have heard thunder on 3 days so far this season not bad but here's hoping for some proper ones soon.
Small risk here tomorrow evening with the windchange at this stage but better further south.
Cheers
Jason.
Canterbury, home of good rugby and severe storms
- NZstorm
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That was a sunny very warm summer Foggy. December and January were very stable months in the north, February and March were more unstable.Steven or anyone, what were the thunderstorms like in the summer of '97/'98?
Yes, odds are that there will be more thunderstorms than normal in east Otago/Canterbury.with a better than normal thunderstorm season over Canterbury/Otago..
Yes. Hopefully the SW are not too moist/cloudy.i think sunshine might be below average due to cloudy SW winds (anticyclonic gloom) type conditions maybe?
I am predicting higher sunshine due to less convective cloud. In a normal summer those sea breeze fronts can really cloud up our skies.
As the SW pattern is very dry in the summer months we could have a drought by late summer Brian.
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Yeah it has been very active that way.. but it's only the eastern third of the Coral Sea.. so I think we'll see a lot of our 'bound' systems will skirt off past East Cape giving us just instead anti-cyclonic southeasterlies?Manukau heads observer wrote:what are the chances of a TC hitting NZ this summer?
i think above average...maybe before xmas?
as there has been alot of early activity in the coral sea....
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Im penciled in to go! cant wait!
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- NZstorm
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I have seen atleast one forecaster predict a wet January for Auckland with low pressure systems coming in from the north. Its interesting to see a variation in opinion out there.
Certainly would be a good trip to do one day although I think NSW is the place for storms in Aussie. NSW does get supercells whereas NT doesn't.Top End Australia so far this season, glad I didn't plan a trip up there this year, was thinking about it.
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