First 2 Weeks of December 08

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Here we had no rain yesterday but 9.4mm recorded today. Was light drizzle all day long with slightly heavier rain from about 3am. During day light hours only drizzle that was annoying enough to require the wipers on but they would screech due to the windscreen being too dry at the same time! Yes that rain/drizzle has moved out to sea now by the radar and from the past 24 hours it really could have been a different story as a very heavy and big rain band sat out to sea stationery for a long time. Possibly up to 50mm plus could have fallen that that rain been further west rather than hanging out at sea. Tomorrow looks to be fine with morning cloud clearing and fine most the day Thursday. Expecting temps in the low 20's but if Thursday gets into the mid 20's then most the moisture today will be absorbed back up and back to square one. It really depends if the low later this week packs any sort of punch. Friday looks like a few showers but Monday looking more hopeful at this stage, just have to see how it all plans out!

[Inny Binny]

During day light hours only drizzle that was annoying enough to require the wipers on but they would screech due to the windscreen being too dry at the same time!

Interesting, here it was persistent moderate rain for large chunks of the day, gutters flowing and rain bouncing on the road, but it seems as though it may have been pretty isolated...

[Ryan Thomas]

And it clears up for my 2 days off then is fine again on Saturday! Wooo

[NZstorm]

The upper air now looks to warm up a bit over the North Island today which spoils my instability forecast. Yesterdays 00Z modelling for today had a forecast afternoon lifted index for Rotorua of -3, now the 12Z run has just -0.6. I doubt there will be much in the way of thunderstorms today. if there is it will be in the eastern BOP/Gisborne ranges. I don't like the 500mb temperatures of -13C.

[David]

Looking like a decent Tasman low coming up...moderate confidence of rain amounts reaching warning criteria:

"Issued by MetService at 1:54pm Thursday 11th December 2008

A ridge of high pressure should move east across New Zealand on Saturday and Sunday.

On Monday, a large low should move over the Tasman Sea then cross the South Island on Tuesday. Northerlies ahead of the associated front are likely to bring heavy rain to the top half of the North Island and also Nelson and Buller on Monday and Tuesday, with a moderate chance of the rainfall accumulating to warning amounts. There is a lower chance that rainfall over the ranges of Westland will reach warning amounts. "

severeweatheroutlook11.12.08.gif

Any thoughts on this eventuating as a significant rain event?

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Looking like a decent Tasman low coming up...moderate confidence of rain amounts reaching warning level.

Any thoughts on this eventuating as a significant rain event?

Could be.
Keep you fingers and arses crossed
This could spawn another thread.
The weather at the moment is quite uneventful with the lead up to Christmas. Maybe this could be a Christmas Present to some people

JohnGaul
NZThS

[Myself]

This late Spring/early Summer is certainly very different for Nelson compared with last year. They had practically no rain in November 2007.

[Storm Struck]

Dare i say it too early but it looks like a reasonable set up for thunderstorms and hail next Wednesday, if the models stay consistant with tracking and positioning of the low and flow.
Also a good shot of rain hopefully this time on Monday night.
This is normally when the storm chances start popping up abit more soon, usually between the 20th Dec- 15th Jan.
Cheers
Jason.

[Vertigo]

wow, theres some fairly intense convection around auckland today. watching a big blowup going on right now out my window, out to the east. very well defined, bigger every time i look at it.

[tich]

Drizzly showers only until about midmorning in Chch, despite showers being forecast until tonight or early tomorrow. Cloud cover and fresh southerly keeping the day rather chilly though.

[Andy]

Drizzly showers only until about midmorning in Chch, despite showers being forecast until tonight or early tomorrow. Cloud cover and fresh southerly keeping the day rather chilly though.

Nice to see some showers, but we need some good rain 30mm+ as the land is drying out.

[Tornado Tim]

Shallow convergence at Matangi, some higher stuff up north.
Just got back from Aussie and im glad to be back in a cooler place.
Update: they have turned into CB's.

[Lacertae]

Quite interesting on the West Coast !
Hope we have some observers there.

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