North Island Low

Andy · Unread post by **Andy** » Thu 24/06/2004 21:49

Just looked at the latest model run from cola. Still early days but a nice deep low may form east of the South Island, mid next week

Probably more snow on the way, especially for the Canterbury fields if this comes off.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Thu 24/06/2004 22:27

See what ECMWF shows tomorrow.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Thu 24/06/2004 22:29

...immmmm interesting

Haven't seen it on other models

JohnGaul
NZTS

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Thu 24/06/2004 22:29

More SW for us

Andy wrote:Just looked at the latest model run from cola. Still early days but a nice deep low may form east of the South Island, mid next week

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Thu 24/06/2004 22:42

UNISYS and Weather on Line are suggesting the same sort of thing.

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Thu 24/06/2004 22:49

I was looking at the latest UNISYS long-range outlook just before coming on this site, and it looks scary - reminds me of the October 2000 storm.

But these systems are notoriously difficult to predict, so it probably won't get that bad, though a cold wet blast for the eastern South Island may still be likely.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Fri 25/06/2004 12:08

Looks like a Low will develop north of NZ early next week and move over the North Island, down Just East of the South Island and be clear of the Country by Thursday.

ScottyD · Unread post by **ScottyD** » Fri 25/06/2004 16:19

would someone be able to post some links so that i can have a look at all the long range forecast models. I know the weatherzone site and the models on that but others i'm not too sure where to find. Thanks in advance,

Scotty

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Fri 25/06/2004 16:43

http://expert.weatheronline.net.nz/pslv_frame.htm <---- Wide range of maps

http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/ua_shem_500p.html (Upper air)

Andy · Unread post by **Andy** » Fri 25/06/2004 17:18

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/ - USA Navy

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/weather/gop ... ly_mrf.gif - 15 Day MRF 500hpa

Anyone else have any more ?

ScottyD · Unread post by **ScottyD** » Fri 25/06/2004 19:39

Cheers, thanks for those links guys. I'm slowly adding things to my favourites.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sat 26/06/2004 18:41

It's looking like just the far North and East of the North Island will feel any significant effects from that Low.

Manukau heads obs · Sun 27/06/2004 09:04

great to see the navy site is back again!

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Sun 27/06/2004 09:28

Already clouded over Doesnt look a lot apart from usual rain for us follwed then another week of Gale Sou'westers

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Sun 27/06/2004 20:14

Totally different from the prognosis(no big low from the north moving down) Its just an ordinary trough with NE or NW in the south is. to horrid gales from the SW tomorrow and dry in the east and cookstrait

Manukau heads obs · Mon 28/06/2004 13:01

ftp://weather.noaa.gov/data/observation ... d/YSNF.TXT

to see the progress of the Norfolk Island Low...
wind getting up, barometer is dropping slowly...

Manukau heads obs · Mon 28/06/2004 15:31

barometer at norfolf island has now dropped 5 hpa in 4 hours....
thats a weather bomp forming!

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Mon 28/06/2004 17:16

East Cape looks most in the firing for the Rain and Gisbourne to Hawkes Bay for the Wind.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Mon 28/06/2004 17:26

Hope it goes to the east we had enough bad weather

spwill wrote:East Cape looks most in the firing for the Rain and Gisbourne to Hawkes Bay for the Wind.

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Mon 28/06/2004 20:34

The latest sat-image,

*Two nice stroms east of Taiwan also to note

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Mon 28/06/2004 22:32

I was looking at the latest UNISYS long-range outlook just before coming on this site, and it looks scary - reminds me of the October 2000 storm. But these systems are notoriously difficult to predict, so it probably won't get that bad, though a cold wet blast for the eastern South Island may still be likely.

East Cape looks most in the firing for the Rain and Gisbourne to Hawkes Bay for the Wind.

Like I said, low movements are very difficult to predict several days ahead. So it now looks like Canterbury has little to worry about - no worse than a day of cold (not very cold) southerlies and showers on Wednesday. Like Spwill said, Gisborne and (most likely northern) Hawkes Bay look like feeling the full force of the system.
Further out, there might be another cold southerly blast this Saturday. ECMWF makes it out to look almost like the event of early July last year, but UNISYS just has it as a brief cold southwesterly in a disturbed west to southwest pattern set to continue for several days.

Manukau heads obs · Tue 29/06/2004 08:03

heavy rain in the bay of islands area now

C-Nimbus · Unread post by **C-Nimbus** » Tue 29/06/2004 08:15

Whoa!!!!

Lots a pink at 6am in Northland

Manukau heads obs · Tue 29/06/2004 08:22

yeah, but you should see the latest image on Sky digital weather channel (updates every 15 minutes)
its all pink/purple over the bay of islands

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Tue 29/06/2004 10:10

High ground exposed to the East today North of East Cape could pick up some very big rain fall .

NZ Weather Forum

North Island Low

North Island Low

Re: Deep low