NZstorm wrote:Thunderstorms look possible over the west and upper North Island late Friday/early Saturday as a trough/SW change moves through. The trough brings ok moisture (dewpoints 15C) with cooling air aloft (500mb-20C). A little bit of speed shear there too with mid to upper level flow 50kts+ which will also favour cb development along the front. GFS is forecasting between 10-15mm with the front in the west.
Temperatures are looking a little cool for my liking
It seems If any Cbs pop up they will be the fibrous (cold topped variety) and they will struggle to put out any lightning (based on that data anyway)
I really hope the actual is different.... but I am not holding my breath.
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Temperatures are looking a little cool for my liking
We are in winter thunderstorm mode now Tornado Tim so thunderstorms will be on the front over the sea and make landfall along western coasts. Shouldn't be too much inland penetration. Auckland can catch these but Matangi wouldn't.
NZstorm wrote:
We are in winter thunderstorm mode now Tornado Tim so thunderstorms will be on the front over the sea and make landfall along western coasts. Shouldn't be too much inland penetration. Auckland can catch these but Matangi wouldn't.
I was referring to the fronts itself.
They still have the habit of dying (lightning wise) as soon as they come close to NZ. (this may change when the winter season becomes more fully established)
Those comments were suppose to apply to West NZ, not my place, LOL
Manukau heads observer wrote:you had your turn during January Tim, LOL!
I know but you can always ask for more, hahahahaha!
Last edited by Tornado Tim on Thu 29/04/2010 15:44, edited 1 time in total.
They still have the habit of dying (lightning wise) as soon as they come close to NZ.
When you have instability that is driven by moisture in the western/central Tasman that is certainly the case. What happens is the moisture plume weakens as the system moves toward us killing off the instability.
Tomorrows system is different with colder air coming up from the south. Some ok prefrontal moisture as well.
What an incrediable evening out there, currently 18C with a breezy NW wind and sitting on 1000hpa.
Impressive arch this evening so i thought it deserved a few photos.
NW Arch 29th April 10 008.JPG
NW Arch 29th April 10 009.JPG
NW Arch 29th April 10 010.JPG
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I like your middle shoot John. some good ones from you too Jase.
Couldn't get a good view of the arch here ,there was too much of the lower cloud coming off the mountains getting in the way,gees even had a few spots of rain from them....brought back memories of when it used to rain
Foggy morning here but a nice day ahead. The front out to the west of the SI is showing up as a weak line of cb atm.
Have to see what comes of it today as it moves north. And then a small cold pool scoots across the NI tomorrow with instability.
NZstorm wrote:Foggy morning here but a nice day ahead.
I noticed that there is less fog here than other parts of Auckland, I'm not sure why. I only observed fog twice last year in Howick (and both times it was patchy/light fog).
Anyway a nice fine morning here for the last day of April
I see Whenuapai Aero was on 6.6C this morn. I think only Waiouru (4.9c), Whitianga Aero (5.7C) and Whakatane Aero (6.4C) may have been cooler. Akld Aero was on 10.0C and down to 11.3C here at 7:10am.
High cloud here with a Moderate northwesterly still well above averagre temps currently 18 degrees. 4mm of spillover rain last night few lighting flashes as well out toward fox peak last night.
some good ones from you too Jase.
even had a few spots of rain from them....brought back memories of when it used to rain
